2020 Watch: How much do debates matter this year?
NEW YORK (AP) — Presidential politics move fast. What we’re watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign:
Days to general election: 36
Days to first debate: 1
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The narrative
The race is tightening somewhat in some states, but Joe Biden is maintaining a remarkably stable lead over President Donald Trump in most national polls five weeks before Election Day as early voting intensifies. Still, the Republican president has at least two major opportunities to improve his standing this week.
First, Trump and his allies are poised to dominate the national conversation as they escalate their push to confirm Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, whom the president formally introduced to America on Saturday. Trump’s team is betting that the evolving confirmation fight will help unify Republicans behind his candidacy and shift the national conversation away from his struggle to control the pandemic.
Second, the first general election debate gives Trump a prime-time opening to test Biden’s physical and mental strength once and for all. Trump and Biden face off Tuesday night in Cleveland, a highly anticipated affair expected to feature a sharp contrast in policy and personality. Biden is being advised to avoid direct attacks, but based on past performance, Trump won’t make it easy to take the high road.
The president is quickly running out of time to shake up the race. He needs a very good week.
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The big questions
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The final thought
For millions of Americans, Election Day has already arrived.
State election officials have already issued more than 3 million absentee or mail ballots in Arizona, nearly 5 million in Florida, and more than 1.1 million in Wisconsin, according to data collected by The Associated Press. Early voting is going on in several other states as well, including Minnesota, North Carolina and Virginia.
As expected, Democrats have a significant advantage in the number of ballots issued so far in most states. It’s too early to read too much into the numbers, except to remember that everything that happens from here on out has the potential to move votes in real time. It’s on.
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