NEW YORK — In the final weeks of the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump’s lawyer tried to buy the silence of a porn actress who said she had a sexual encounter with the Republican during his days as a reality TV star.
Alex Brandon
Donald Trump
More than six years later, New York prosecutors appear to be close to deciding whether Trump should face charges in connection with that payoff, in what could become the first criminal case ever brought against a former president.
News that the Manhattan district attorney invited Trump to testify before a grand jury soon suggested prosecutors were serious about bringing charges in a probe that looked like yesterday’s news just a few months ago.
Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, now a key prosecution witness, is scheduled to testify before the grand jury on Monday, according to two people familiar with the matter. The people were not authorized to speak publicly about grand jury proceedings and did so on condition of anonymity.
Trump has denied wrongdoing and that he had any extramarital affairs, and he blasted the probe in a Truth Social post as a “political Witch-Hunt, trying to take down the leading candidate, by far, in the Republican Party.”
Here’s a refresher on how things got to this point:
What is this case about?
The investigation centers on hush-money payments made in 2016 to two women who alleged that they had extramarital encounters with Trump, who has denied their accounts of his infidelity.
Specifically, District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s team appears to be looking at whether Trump or anyone committed crimes in arranging the payments, or in the way they accounted for them internally at the Trump Organization.
How were the payments made?
Cohen paid porn actress Stormy Daniels $130,000 through a shell company Cohen set up. He was then reimbursed by Trump, whose company logged the reimbursements as legal expenses.
Markus Schreiber
Stormy Daniels
Earlier in 2016, Cohen also arranged for former Playboy model Karen McDougal to be paid $150,000 by the publisher of the supermarket tabloid the National Enquirer, which squelched her story in a journalistically dubious practice known as “catch-and-kill.”
Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, “grossed up” Cohen’s reimbursement for the Daniels payment for “tax purposes,” according to federal prosecutors who filed criminal charges against the lawyer in connection with the payments in 2018.
Cohen got $360,000 plus a $60,000 bonus, for a total of $420,000.
Cohen pleaded guilty to violating federal campaign finance law in connection with the payments. Federal prosecutors say the payments amounted to illegal, unreported assistance to Trump’s campaign. But they declined to file charges against Trump himself.
What is Trump’s involvement?
Cohen says Trump directed him to arrange the Daniels payment.
Mary Altaffer
Michael Cohen
Cohen also made recordings of a conversation in which he and Trump spoke about the arrangement to pay McDougal through the National Enquirer.
At one point in the recording, Cohen told Trump, “I need to open up a company for the transfer of all of that info regarding our friend, David,” a reference to David Pecker, who ran the Enquirer’s parent company at the time.
Cohen said he had already spoken with the Trump Organization’s longtime finance chief, Allen Weisselberg, on “how to set the whole thing up.”
Trump then said: “What do we got to pay for this? One-fifty?”
Today, Trump characterizes the attempts to get him to pay money to the women to keep them quiet as “extortion.”
What crimes are prosecutors looking at?
Legal experts say a case could be made that Trump falsified business records by logging Cohen’s reimbursement for the Daniels payment as legal fees. But that’s only a misdemeanor under New York law — unless prosecutors could prove he falsified records to conceal another crime.
Mark Pomerantz, who led the investigation under then-District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr., wrote in his recent book “People vs. Donald Trump: An Inside Account” that in 2021, he looked into whether Trump could be charged with money laundering or if Trump had been somehow extorted.
David Shapiro, a fraud risk and financial crimes specialist and former FBI special agent, said a potential case against Trump could be “especially difficult” when it comes to proving his intent and knowledge of wrongdoing.
“He’s loud, he’s brash, so proving that he had specific intent to fraud, one is almost left with the idea that, ‘well, if he has that specific intent of fraud, he has it all of the time, because that’s his personality,'” said Shapiro, a lecturer at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
The Manhattan district attorney’s office has declined to comment on the investigation.
Haven’t we been here before?
Yes. Several times.
Federal prosecutors entered into a non-prosecution agreement with the National Enquirer’s owner, which admitted paying McDougal to help Trump, but they declined to seek a criminal charge against the then-sitting president.
The Manhattan district attorney’s office opened its own investigation into the payments in 2019 and has revisited it several times since while expanding the probe into Trump’s business dealings and other topics.
So far, the only charges have been against Weisselberg, who pleaded guilty, and the Trump Organization, which was convicted in December of an unrelated offense: scheming to dodge taxes on company-paid perks such as free apartments and cars for executives.
What about the statute of limitations?
The hush-money payments and Cohen’s reimbursements happened more than six years ago. New York’s statute of limitations for most felonies is five years. For misdemeanors, it’s just two years.
Does that mean prosecutors have run out of time? Trump thinks so. In social media posts, he insists that the statute of limitations “long ago expired,” calling the matter “old news.”
But that’s not always how the law works. In New York, the clock can stop on the statute of limitations when a potential defendant is continuously outside the state. Trump visited New York rarely over the four years of his presidency and now lives mostly in Florida and New Jersey.
Practically speaking, though, the passage of time could affect the case in other ways. Memories fade, and evidence and records get lost or destroyed.
“The power of the case — the surprise factor, the shock value,” also fades, Shapiro said, meaning a jury might be less impressed by allegations that have been public for so long.
Who are prosecutors speaking with?
Members of Trump’s inner circle, including his former political adviser Kellyanne Conway and former spokesperson Hope Hicks, have met with prosecutors in recent weeks. Cohen, now estranged from Trump, has made several visits to prepare for his expected grand jury testimony.
Among others: Pecker, the former National Enquirer publisher, was spotted going into the building where the grand jury is meeting, as well as Trump Organization insiders including the company’s senior vice president and controller Jeffrey McConney.
Prosecutors are still interested in Weisselberg’s insider knowledge about the hush-money arrangements. The 75-year-old ex-CFO is due to be released from a five-month jail sentence on April 19. There’s no indication that he’s keen to cooperate against his former boss.
Trump himself is probably highly unlikely to testify before the grand jury or meet with prosecutors.
What other legal trouble is Trump facing?
The hush-money case is one of several potential criminal cases the Republican faces as he mounts a comeback run for the White House in 2024, along with an investigation into election interference in Georgia, the probe of storage of classified documents at his Florida home, and other matters.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
Then-President Donald Trump left the White House for Florida ahead of President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration. According to the General Services Administration, members of Trump's transition team were responsible for packing items into boxes, putting boxes on pallets and shrink-wrapping those pallets so they could be transported.
Prior to shipping, GSA said it "required the outgoing transition team to certify in writing that the items being shipped were required to wind down the Office of the Former President and would be utilized as the Office transitioned to its new location in Florida."
GSA did not examine the contents of the boxes and "had no knowledge of the contents prior to shipping," according to an agency spokesperson. GSA was also not responsible for the former president's personal belongings, which were transported by a private moving company.
Under the Presidential Records Act, presidential records are considered federal property — not private — and are supposed to be turned over to the National Archives and Records Administration. Multiple federal laws govern the handling of classified and sensitive government documents, including statutes that make it a crime to remove such material and retain it at an unauthorized location.
AP file
Then-President Donald Trump left the White House for Florida ahead of President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration. According to the General Services Administration, members of Trump's transition team were responsible for packing items into boxes, putting boxes on pallets and shrink-wrapping those pallets so they could be transported.
Prior to shipping, GSA said it "required the outgoing transition team to certify in writing that the items being shipped were required to wind down the Office of the Former President and would be utilized as the Office transitioned to its new location in Florida."
GSA did not examine the contents of the boxes and "had no knowledge of the contents prior to shipping," according to an agency spokesperson. GSA was also not responsible for the former president's personal belongings, which were transported by a private moving company.
Under the Presidential Records Act, presidential records are considered federal property — not private — and are supposed to be turned over to the National Archives and Records Administration. Multiple federal laws govern the handling of classified and sensitive government documents, including statutes that make it a crime to remove such material and retain it at an unauthorized location.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
After NARA realized that documents from Trump's presidency seemed to be missing from the material that it received as he left office, the agency requested the records from Trump on or about May 6, 2021, according to a heavily redacted affidavit made public Aug. 26, 2022.
AP file
After NARA realized that documents from Trump's presidency seemed to be missing from the material that it received as he left office, the agency requested the records from Trump on or about May 6, 2021, according to a heavily redacted affidavit made public Aug. 26, 2022.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
The special agent in charge of NARA's Office of the Inspector General sent a referral to the Justice Department via email after a preliminary review of the boxes revealed numerous classified documents.
"Of most significant concern," they wrote, according to a heavily-redacted affidavit released last week, "was that highly classified records were unfoldered, intermixed with other records, and otherwise unproperly (sic) identified."
After an initial review of the NARA referral, the FBI opened a criminal investigation into the matter.
AP file
The special agent in charge of NARA's Office of the Inspector General sent a referral to the Justice Department via email after a preliminary review of the boxes revealed numerous classified documents.
"Of most significant concern," they wrote, according to a heavily-redacted affidavit released last week, "was that highly classified records were unfoldered, intermixed with other records, and otherwise unproperly (sic) identified."
After an initial review of the NARA referral, the FBI opened a criminal investigation into the matter.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
Trump's Save America PAC released a statement insisting the return of the documents had been as "routine" and "no big deal."
Trump insisted the "papers were given easily and without conflict and on a very friendly basis," and added, "It was a great honor to work with NARA to help formally preserve the Trump Legacy."
AP file
Trump's Save America PAC released a statement insisting the return of the documents had been as "routine" and "no big deal."
Trump insisted the "papers were given easily and without conflict and on a very friendly basis," and added, "It was a great honor to work with NARA to help formally preserve the Trump Legacy."
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
The Justice Department sent a letter to Trump's lawyers seeking immediate access to the material, citing "important national security interest."
"Access to the materials is not only necessary for purposes of our ongoing criminal investigation, but the Executive Branch must also conduct an assessment of the potential damage resulting from the apparent manner in which these materials were stored and transported and take any necessary remedial steps," the department wrote.
Trump's lawyers requested an additional extension.
AP file
The Justice Department sent a letter to Trump's lawyers seeking immediate access to the material, citing "important national security interest."
"Access to the materials is not only necessary for purposes of our ongoing criminal investigation, but the Executive Branch must also conduct an assessment of the potential damage resulting from the apparent manner in which these materials were stored and transported and take any necessary remedial steps," the department wrote.
Trump's lawyers requested an additional extension.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
Three FBI agents and a DOJ attorney went to Mar-a-Lago to collect additional material offered by a Trump attorney in response to the subpoena. They were given "a single Redweld envelope, double-wrapped in tape, containing the documents," according to an Aug. 30 filing.
That envelope, it was later found, contained 38 documents with classification markings, including five documents marked confidential, 16 marked secret and 17 marked top secret.
During the visit, the filing said, "Counsel for the former President offered no explanation as to why boxes of government records, including 38 documents with classification markings, remained at the Premises nearly five months after the production of the Fifteen Boxes and nearly one-and-a-half years after the end of the Administration."
Trump's lawyers also told investigators that all of the records that had come from the White House were stored in one location — a Mar-a-Lago storage room. Investigators were permitted to visit the room, but were "explicitly prohibited" from opening or looking inside any of the boxes, they reported, "giving no opportunity for the government to confirm that no documents with classification markings remained."
The Justice Department was also given a signed certification letter stating that a "diligent search" had been completed and that no documents remained.
AP file
Three FBI agents and a DOJ attorney went to Mar-a-Lago to collect additional material offered by a Trump attorney in response to the subpoena. They were given "a single Redweld envelope, double-wrapped in tape, containing the documents," according to an Aug. 30 filing.
That envelope, it was later found, contained 38 documents with classification markings, including five documents marked confidential, 16 marked secret and 17 marked top secret.
During the visit, the filing said, "Counsel for the former President offered no explanation as to why boxes of government records, including 38 documents with classification markings, remained at the Premises nearly five months after the production of the Fifteen Boxes and nearly one-and-a-half years after the end of the Administration."
Trump's lawyers also told investigators that all of the records that had come from the White House were stored in one location — a Mar-a-Lago storage room. Investigators were permitted to visit the room, but were "explicitly prohibited" from opening or looking inside any of the boxes, they reported, "giving no opportunity for the government to confirm that no documents with classification markings remained."
The Justice Department was also given a signed certification letter stating that a "diligent search" had been completed and that no documents remained.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
The Justice Department filed an application for a search and seizure warrant of Mar-a-Lago, citing "probable cause" that additional presidential records and records containing classified information remained in various parts of the club.
"There is also probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction" would be found, read the heavily-redacted copy of the affidavit laying out the FBI's rationale for the search.
The Justice Department also revealed in the Aug. 30 filing that it had found evidence "that government records were likely concealed and removed from the Storage Room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government's investigation."
U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart in South Florida approved the application that same day.
AP file
The Justice Department filed an application for a search and seizure warrant of Mar-a-Lago, citing "probable cause" that additional presidential records and records containing classified information remained in various parts of the club.
"There is also probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction" would be found, read the heavily-redacted copy of the affidavit laying out the FBI's rationale for the search.
The Justice Department also revealed in the Aug. 30 filing that it had found evidence "that government records were likely concealed and removed from the Storage Room and that efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government's investigation."
U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart in South Florida approved the application that same day.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
The FBI executed the search at Mar-a-Lago, seizing 36 items of evidence, including boxes and containers holding more than 100 classified records, an order pardoning Trump ally Roger Stone and information about the "President of France."
Agents found classified documents both in the storage room as well as in the former president's office — including three classified documents found not in boxes, but in office desks.
They included items so sensitive that, "In some instances, even the FBI counterintelligence personnel and DOJ attorneys conducting the review required additional clearances before they were permitted to review certain documents."
"That the FBI, in a matter of hours, recovered twice as many documents with classification markings as the 'diligent search' that the former President's counsel and other representatives had weeks to perform calls into serious question the representations made in the June 3 certification and casts doubt on the extent of cooperation in this matter," the Justice Department wrote.
Trump and his allies, meanwhile, cast the search as a weaponization of the criminal justice system aimed at damaging him politically as he prepares for another potential White House run.
AP file
The FBI executed the search at Mar-a-Lago, seizing 36 items of evidence, including boxes and containers holding more than 100 classified records, an order pardoning Trump ally Roger Stone and information about the "President of France."
Agents found classified documents both in the storage room as well as in the former president's office — including three classified documents found not in boxes, but in office desks.
They included items so sensitive that, "In some instances, even the FBI counterintelligence personnel and DOJ attorneys conducting the review required additional clearances before they were permitted to review certain documents."
"That the FBI, in a matter of hours, recovered twice as many documents with classification markings as the 'diligent search' that the former President's counsel and other representatives had weeks to perform calls into serious question the representations made in the June 3 certification and casts doubt on the extent of cooperation in this matter," the Justice Department wrote.
Trump and his allies, meanwhile, cast the search as a weaponization of the criminal justice system aimed at damaging him politically as he prepares for another potential White House run.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
Judge Reinhart unsealed the warrant that authorized the FBI to search Mar-a-Lago, which details that federal agents were investigating potential violations of three federal laws, including the Espionage Act.
AP file
Judge Reinhart unsealed the warrant that authorized the FBI to search Mar-a-Lago, which details that federal agents were investigating potential violations of three federal laws, including the Espionage Act.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
AP file
A highly redacted version of the affidavit laying out the FBI's rationale for searching Mar-a-Lago was released.
AP file
A highly redacted version of the affidavit laying out the FBI's rationale for searching Mar-a-Lago was released.
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Empty folders marked classified among items found in FBI search of Trump home
Department of Justice via AP
The Justice Department responded to Trump's request for a special master in a filing that included new details about the investigation, including an assertion that classified documents were "likely concealed and removed" from a storage room at Mar-a-Lago as part of an effort to obstruct the probe.
It included a photograph of some the material found at the club, including cover pages of paperclip-bound documents — some marked as "TOP SECRET//SCI" with bright yellow borders and one marked as "SECRET//SCI" with a rust-colored border — splayed out on a carpet at Mar-a-Lago.
"Terrible the way the FBI, during the Raid of Mar-a-Lago, threw documents haphazardly all over the floor (perhaps pretending it was me that did it!), and then started taking pictures of them for the public to see," Trump responded. "Thought they wanted them kept Secret?"
Department of Justice via AP
The Justice Department responded to Trump's request for a special master in a filing that included new details about the investigation, including an assertion that classified documents were "likely concealed and removed" from a storage room at Mar-a-Lago as part of an effort to obstruct the probe.
It included a photograph of some the material found at the club, including cover pages of paperclip-bound documents — some marked as "TOP SECRET//SCI" with bright yellow borders and one marked as "SECRET//SCI" with a rust-colored border — splayed out on a carpet at Mar-a-Lago.
"Terrible the way the FBI, during the Raid of Mar-a-Lago, threw documents haphazardly all over the floor (perhaps pretending it was me that did it!), and then started taking pictures of them for the public to see," Trump responded. "Thought they wanted them kept Secret?"
