Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, hoping to deter one

WASHINGTON — It’s April 22, 2027, and 72 hours into a first-strike Chinese attack on Taiwan and the United States military response. Already, the toll on all sides is staggering.

It was a war game, but one with a serious purpose and high-profile players: members of the House select committee on China. The conflict unfolded on Risk board game-style tabletop maps and markers under a giant gold chandelier in the House Ways and Means Committee room.

The exercise explored American diplomatic, economic and military options if the U.S. and China were to go to war over Taiwan, a self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own. The exercise played out one night last week, observed by The Associated Press. It was part of the committee’s in-depth review of U.S. policies toward China as lawmakers, especially in the Republican-led House, focus on tensions with President Xi Jinping’s government.

In the war game, Beijing’s missiles and rockets cascade down on Taiwan and on U.S. forces as far away as Japan and Guam. Initial casualties include hundreds, possibly thousands, of U.S. troops. Taiwan’s and China’s losses are even higher.

Discouragingly for Washington, alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to support Taiwan almost entirely alone.

The war game wasn’t about planning a war, lawmakers said. It was about figuring out how to strengthen U.S. deterrence to keep a war involving the U.S., China and Taiwan from starting.

Ideally, the members of Congress would walk out of the war game with two convictions, the committee chairman, Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., told colleagues: “One is a sense of urgency.”

The second: “A sense … that there are meaningful things we can do in this Congress through legislative action to improve the prospect of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, the committee’s top Democrat, told lawmakers, “we cannot have a situation where we are faced with what we are going to be facing tonight.”

The “only way to do that is to deter aggression and to prevent a conflict from arising,” said Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill.

The U.S. doesn’t formally recognize Taiwan’s government but provides weapons and other security assistance to Taipei. 

Xi directed his military to be ready to reclaim Taiwan in 2027, by force if necessary. Asked about the lawmakers’ war game, Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said China wants peaceful reunification but reserves “the option of taking all necessary measures.”

“The U.S. side’s so-called ‘war game’ is meant to support and embolden ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and further fuel tensions in the Taiwan Strait, which we firmly oppose,” Liu said.

<p>Lawmakers in a new House select committee on China from left, Rep. Jake Auchincloss, D-Mass.; Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich.; Chairman Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., and Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., gather for a tabletop war game exercise in the House Ways and Means Committee room Wednesday in Washington.</p>

Ellen Knickmeyer, Associated Press

Lawmakers in a new House select committee on China from left, Rep. Jake Auchincloss, D-Mass.; Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich.; Chairman Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., and Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., gather for a tabletop war game exercise in the House Ways and Means Committee room Wednesday in Washington.

In the war game, lawmakers played the blue team in the role of National Security Council advisers. Their directive: Deter a Chinese takeover of Taiwan if possible, defeat it if not.

Experts for the Center for a New American Security think tank, whose research includes war-gaming possible conflicts using realistic scenarios and unclassified information, played the red team.

The exercise kicks off with opposition lawmakers in Taiwan talking about independence. Angry Chinese officials respond by heaping unacceptable demands on Taiwan. China’s military moves invasion-capable forces into position. Steps such as bringing in blood supplies for treating troops suggest this is no ordinary military exercise.

Ultimately, China imposes a de facto blockade on Taiwan, which produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, as well as other high-tech gear.

U.S. presidential advisers — House committee members who surround and study the wooden tables with the map and troop markers spread out — assemble.

They lob questions at a retired general, Mike Holmes, playing the role of the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, before deciding courses of action.

What are the economic consequences if the U.S. goes maximalist on financial punishments, one lawmaker asks.

“Catastrophic” is the response, as China will hit back at the U.S. economy.

Do American leaders have any way to communicate with their Chinese counterparts, lawmakers ask. No, China’s leaders have a history of shunning U.S. hotline calls, and that’s a problem, the exercise leaders tell them.

In the game, U.S. officials try to pass messages to Chinese counterparts through China-based American business leaders, whose operations China subsequently seizes.

On paper, U.S. and Chinese satellites, space weapons, drones, submarines, ground forces, warships, fighter squadrons, cyber warriors, communications experts, bankers, Treasury officials and diplomats all go to war.

At the end, the war-game operators reveal the toll of the first wave of fighting. Lawmakers wince as they hear of particularly hard setbacks among U.S. successes.

Lawmakers point to a few key military weaknesses the war game highlighted. “Running out of long-missiles is bad,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D.

The most glaring shortfalls appeared in diplomacy and in nonmilitary planning. The exercise also underscored the risks of neglecting to put together a package of well-thought out economic penalties, and of failing to build consensus among allies, lawmakers said.

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