Hurricane Idalia strengthens into a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds
By DANIEL KOZIN Associated Press
CEDAR KEY, Fla. (AP) — Hurricane Idalia strengthened to a Category 2 storm with 100 mph (155 kph) winds on Tuesday as it barreled toward Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane Tuesday night before it reaches the Big Bend, where the Florida Panhandle curves into the peninsula, and is still likely to be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia on Wednesday.
Authorities warned residents of vulnerable areas along the Gulf Coast to pack up and leave to escape the twin threats of high winds and devastating flooding. The hurricane could deal a big blow to a state still dealing with lingering damage from last year’s Hurricane Ian.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee called Idalia “an unprecedented event” since no major hurricanes on record have ever passed through the bay abutting the Big Bend region.
At 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Idalia was about 195 miles (310 kilometers) southwest of Tampa, the National Hurricane Center said. It was moving north at 16 mph (26 kph).
On the island of Cedar Key, Commissioner Sue Colson joined other city officials in packing up documents and electronics at City Hall. She had a message for the almost 900 residents who were under mandatory orders to evacuate the island near the coast of the Big Bend region. More than a dozen state troopers went door to door warning residents that storm surge could rise as high as 15 feet (4.5 meters).
“One word: Leave,” Colson said. “It’s not something to discuss.”
Here’s the full story:
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Which U.S. counties face the biggest danger from Earth's most powerful storms?
With climate experts forecasting a "borderline hyperactive" hurricane season, Gutter Gnome ranked 2023's Most Hurricane-Vulnerable Counties.
The study combined hurricane risk assessments by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) with 10 years of historical storm data and financial impact projections from government agencies.
See how over 300 counties might fare this hurricane season in the ranking.
Canva
Which U.S. counties face the biggest danger from Earth's most powerful storms?
With climate experts forecasting a "borderline hyperactive" hurricane season, Gutter Gnome ranked 2023's Most Hurricane-Vulnerable Counties.
The study combined hurricane risk assessments by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) with 10 years of historical storm data and financial impact projections from government agencies.
See how over 300 counties might fare this hurricane season in the ranking.
Hurricane Hilary threatens ‘catastrophic and life-threatening’ flooding in Mexico and California
Gutter Gnome
The Big Picture
The Sunshine State might also be called the Hurricane State, as two of its counties, Broward and Palm Beach, occupy the two worst spots for hurricane risk. It's also no surprise that the Southeast has the biggest hurricane vulnerability, the ranking confirms.
In fact, the 10% most susceptible counties are made up almost entirely of only three states: Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Chatham County, Georgia (No. 8), and Harris County, Texas (No. 13), are the lone exceptions in this group.
Conversely, much of New England and the Texas coast are the calmest regions. Hurricanes tend to be rare in these areas and therefore face low risk of physical and monetary damages.
Check out the rankings on each of the five worst-performing counties.
No. 1: Broward County, Florida | Overall Score: 72.70
Risk: 3
Hurricane History: 26
Financial Impact: 2
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No. 2: Palm Beach County, Florida | Overall Score: 72.09
Risk: 4
Hurricane History: 26
Financial Impact: 3
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No. 3: Charleston County, South Carolina | Overall Score: 68.17
Risk: 9
Hurricane History: 2
Financial Impact: 8
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No. 4: Horry County, South Carolina | Overall Score: 66.31
Risk: 11
Hurricane History: 2
Financial Impact: 11
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No. 5: Miami-Dade County, Florida | Overall Score: 65.10
Risk: 2
Hurricane History: 84
Financial Impact: 4
Gutter Gnome
The Big Picture
The Sunshine State might also be called the Hurricane State, as two of its counties, Broward and Palm Beach, occupy the two worst spots for hurricane risk. It's also no surprise that the Southeast has the biggest hurricane vulnerability, the ranking confirms.
In fact, the 10% most susceptible counties are made up almost entirely of only three states: Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Chatham County, Georgia (No. 8), and Harris County, Texas (No. 13), are the lone exceptions in this group.
Conversely, much of New England and the Texas coast are the calmest regions. Hurricanes tend to be rare in these areas and therefore face low risk of physical and monetary damages.
Check out the rankings on each of the five worst-performing counties.
No. 1: Broward County, Florida | Overall Score: 72.70
Risk: 3
Hurricane History: 26
Financial Impact: 2
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No. 2: Palm Beach County, Florida | Overall Score: 72.09
Risk: 4
Hurricane History: 26
Financial Impact: 3
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No. 3: Charleston County, South Carolina | Overall Score: 68.17
Risk: 9
Hurricane History: 2
Financial Impact: 8
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No. 4: Horry County, South Carolina | Overall Score: 66.31
Risk: 11
Hurricane History: 2
Financial Impact: 11
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No. 5: Miami-Dade County, Florida | Overall Score: 65.10
Hurricane Hilary threatens ‘catastrophic and life-threatening’ flooding in Mexico and California
Gutter Gnome
Calm Before the Storm
Although most hurricane-vulnerable counties display equally high risk and history of hurricane activity and financial loss, some counties buck this trend. They include counties like Florence, South Carolina (No. 17), and Columbus, North Carolina (No. 22), which are rated more moderately in terms of risk by NCDP and FEMA but have experienced significantly more hurricanes over the past decade.
All Quiet on the Southern FrontÂ
Some counties synonymous with hurricane disasters didn't rank as high — more vulnerable, that is — despite very high risk of storms and loss. Lee County, Florida (No. 36), for instance, was devastated by Hurricane Ian in 2022. Apart from one other Category 5, Irma in 2017, Lee County has had a relatively calm decade. Likewise, Orleans Parish, Louisiana (No. 61), was leveled by Hurricane Katrina. That was back in 2005 — the past 10 years have been more peaceful.
Inland ≠Immune
While some counties might be farther from the coast, they are not necessarily safe from hurricanes or their effects. Richland County, South Carolina (No. 112 overall), and Wake County, North Carolina (No. 93), for instance, both lie more than 100 miles from the Atlantic Coast but show above-average risk and active hurricane histories. Typical hurricanes cover an area of about 100 miles but can be as wide as 300 miles.
When It Rains, It Pours
Although hurricanes are rare in the Middle Texas Coast, some arrive with intense force. When Hurricane Harvey crossed over the area in 2017, a record 1 trillion gallons of water fell over Harris County over four days. This is why Harris County received the highest risk assessment and financial loss estimate — from separate research entities — despite a relatively quiet decade. Prior to Harvey, Celia was the last major hurricane to hit the area — in 1970.
Costliest Counties
Of the 10 counties with the highest expected annual financial loss from hurricanes, eight are in Florida. Collectively, those eight counties represent over $4.3 billion of losses, though actual losses often are significantly higher. Harris County, Texas (No. 13 overall) — covering Houston, the fourth largest U.S. metro area — and Charleston County, South Carolina (No. 3), make up the other two counties. Harris County leads this entire group and represents potential losses greater than $1.1 billion.
Categorically Catastrophic
Over the past decade, four states — Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina — each have been hit or affected by four Category 5 hurricanes between 2013 and 2022, the most among all the counties the study ranked. However, only one Georgia county, Chatham (No. 8 overall), was effectively impacted by a Category 5 storm.
Geographic Differences
Honolulu County, Hawaii (No. 53 overall), is the only Pacific county in the ranking and registered the most hurricane activity, with 12 in the past 10 years. In this region, hurricanes — as tropical cyclones are known on the Atlantic Coast — are called "typhoons." They are the same weather phenomenon.
Gutter Gnome
Calm Before the Storm
Although most hurricane-vulnerable counties display equally high risk and history of hurricane activity and financial loss, some counties buck this trend. They include counties like Florence, South Carolina (No. 17), and Columbus, North Carolina (No. 22), which are rated more moderately in terms of risk by NCDP and FEMA but have experienced significantly more hurricanes over the past decade.
All Quiet on the Southern FrontÂ
Some counties synonymous with hurricane disasters didn't rank as high — more vulnerable, that is — despite very high risk of storms and loss. Lee County, Florida (No. 36), for instance, was devastated by Hurricane Ian in 2022. Apart from one other Category 5, Irma in 2017, Lee County has had a relatively calm decade. Likewise, Orleans Parish, Louisiana (No. 61), was leveled by Hurricane Katrina. That was back in 2005 — the past 10 years have been more peaceful.
Inland ≠Immune
While some counties might be farther from the coast, they are not necessarily safe from hurricanes or their effects. Richland County, South Carolina (No. 112 overall), and Wake County, North Carolina (No. 93), for instance, both lie more than 100 miles from the Atlantic Coast but show above-average risk and active hurricane histories. Typical hurricanes cover an area of about 100 miles but can be as wide as 300 miles.
When It Rains, It Pours
Although hurricanes are rare in the Middle Texas Coast, some arrive with intense force. When Hurricane Harvey crossed over the area in 2017, a record 1 trillion gallons of water fell over Harris County over four days. This is why Harris County received the highest risk assessment and financial loss estimate — from separate research entities — despite a relatively quiet decade. Prior to Harvey, Celia was the last major hurricane to hit the area — in 1970.
Costliest Counties
Of the 10 counties with the highest expected annual financial loss from hurricanes, eight are in Florida. Collectively, those eight counties represent over $4.3 billion of losses, though actual losses often are significantly higher. Harris County, Texas (No. 13 overall) — covering Houston, the fourth largest U.S. metro area — and Charleston County, South Carolina (No. 3), make up the other two counties. Harris County leads this entire group and represents potential losses greater than $1.1 billion.
Categorically Catastrophic
Over the past decade, four states — Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina — each have been hit or affected by four Category 5 hurricanes between 2013 and 2022, the most among all the counties the study ranked. However, only one Georgia county, Chatham (No. 8 overall), was effectively impacted by a Category 5 storm.
Geographic Differences
Honolulu County, Hawaii (No. 53 overall), is the only Pacific county in the ranking and registered the most hurricane activity, with 12 in the past 10 years. In this region, hurricanes — as tropical cyclones are known on the Atlantic Coast — are called "typhoons." They are the same weather phenomenon.
San Felipe-Okeechobee Hurricane (1928): 2,500 Deaths
Hurricane Katrina (2005): 1,207 Deaths
Cheniere Caminada Hurricane (1893): 1,100 Â
Behind the Ranking
First, Gutter Gnome determined the factors (metrics) that are most relevant to rank the Most Hurricane-Vulnerable Counties. A weight was assigned to each factor based on its importance and the factors were grouped into three categories: Risk, Hurricane History, and Financial Impact. The categories, factors, and their weights are listed in the table below.
For each of 318 U.S. counties with a Hurricane Risk Score determined by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), Gutter Gnome then gathered data on each factor from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).Â
Finally, scores were calculated (out of 100 points) for each county to determine its rank in each factor, each category, and overall. A county's Overall Score is the average of its scores across all factors and categories. The highest Overall Score ranked "Most Vulnerable" (No. 1) and the lowest "Least Vulnerable" (No. 318).Â
Notes
The "Least Vulnerable" among individual factors may not be No. 318 due to ties.
Although some hurricanes did not directly cross over a particular county, hurricanes within 100 miles (the average coverage area of a typical hurricane) of the county's center were counted in its history, as it still may have been impacted by those storms. The study therefore included all hurricanes that made landfall within 100 miles of each county's center.
NCDP's dataset does not currently include Hurricane Risk data for the Eastern Pacific Basin. West Coast counties therefore were excluded from the sample, as well.
San Felipe-Okeechobee Hurricane (1928): 2,500 Deaths
Hurricane Katrina (2005): 1,207 Deaths
Cheniere Caminada Hurricane (1893): 1,100 Â
Behind the Ranking
First, Gutter Gnome determined the factors (metrics) that are most relevant to rank the Most Hurricane-Vulnerable Counties. A weight was assigned to each factor based on its importance and the factors were grouped into three categories: Risk, Hurricane History, and Financial Impact. The categories, factors, and their weights are listed in the table below.
For each of 318 U.S. counties with a Hurricane Risk Score determined by the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), Gutter Gnome then gathered data on each factor from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).Â
Finally, scores were calculated (out of 100 points) for each county to determine its rank in each factor, each category, and overall. A county's Overall Score is the average of its scores across all factors and categories. The highest Overall Score ranked "Most Vulnerable" (No. 1) and the lowest "Least Vulnerable" (No. 318).Â
Notes
The "Least Vulnerable" among individual factors may not be No. 318 due to ties.
Although some hurricanes did not directly cross over a particular county, hurricanes within 100 miles (the average coverage area of a typical hurricane) of the county's center were counted in its history, as it still may have been impacted by those storms. The study therefore included all hurricanes that made landfall within 100 miles of each county's center.
NCDP's dataset does not currently include Hurricane Risk data for the Eastern Pacific Basin. West Coast counties therefore were excluded from the sample, as well.
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