Europe hasn’t been this cheap for Americans in decades

If you’re an American visiting Italy, Greece or Spain this summer after a travel hiatus during the pandemic, you’re in luck: Meals, hotels and tours are more affordable in dollars than they’ve been in two decades.

What’s happening: The euro has slumped to about $1.03, plunging more than 8% against the US dollar year-to-date. It’s now trading at its lowest level since late 2002.

Most analysts don’t think it’s bottomed out yet. Predictions are flying around that it could even reach parity, in which one dollar can be swapped for one euro.

“I’m bearish on the euro until I see a headline that tells me global growth is going to pick up in a big way,” Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester told me. He thinks the euro will hit parity by the end of August.

Breaking it down: What’s good for American tourists is tough on European businesses that need to buy energy, raw materials and components priced in dollars. The rising cost of imports could continue to boost prices across the 19 countries that use the euro, where annual inflation jumped to a record high of 8.6% in June.

What’s triggering the sell-off of the euro, the second most-used currency in the world? Analysts point to a few factors.

The first is the economic outlook. Recession fears are rising globally. But Europe’s proximity to the war in Ukraine, and its historic reliance on Russia to meet its energy needs, has made it more vulnerable than the United States.

Natural gas prices in Europe are at their highest level since March. Russia has cut flows of gas to Europe, and the major Nord Stream pipeline is about to undergo maintenance. Energy workers in Norway have just gone on strike, threatening further supply constraints.

“We have an upcoming winter crisis for the euro zone and I expect energy prices will remain very strong,” Rochester said.

The euro tends to perform poorly when risk appetite among investors pulls back.

Another issue is trade. Germany just reported a rare monthly trade deficit, a sign that high energy prices are weighing on manufacturers in Europe’s export powerhouse. A weaker euro then becomes necessary to make the bloc’s exports more competitive.

Europe has also been behind the United States in raising interest rates, though the European Central Bank expects to begin hiking this month. That means investors are more likely to park their money in the United States, where they can net better returns.

As interest rates climb, there are concerns that bond markets in countries with high debt loads like Italy and Greece could come under strain. The ECB has said it will work to prevent what it refers to as “fragmentation,” but it remains a risk traders are monitoring closely.

Clients “are very concerned about all things European,” Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes said Tuesday. “Germany’s trade data yesterday went down badly, and the sense that the current account surplus is being battered by energy prices is widely spread. Add in worries about fragmentation and fear that the global economy is turning south, and it’s hard to get even slightly upbeat about the euro.”

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