The 49ers and Deebo Samuel are locked in a contract negotiation dance.
So isn’t it fitting that Samuel, a one-of-a-kind player on the field, has taken a unique position off it, as well?
ESPN reported on Wednesday that the 49ers’ All-Pro wide receiver/running back/offensive weapon is no longer engaging in contract extension talks and has requested a trade from San Francisco.
Subsequent reporting from NFL Network says that “money is not at the root of” Samuel’s trade request.
What was a standard contract negotiation procedure has skipped a few steps. Things have dramatically escalated. We’re at DEFCON 1.
But no matter what the next move is, this whole saga deserves a heaping dose of skepticism and scorn.
This contract showdown is unbecoming to the 49ers, whose offseason was already defined by failure.
But it’s unbecoming to Samuel as well. Negotiating a new contract is tough — it becomes even more difficult when it is unnecessarily dragged into the public domain and made all the messier.
Yes, everyone looks like a fool here, because the 49ers don’t have to do anything to keep Samuel in red and gold for the next few years.
Yes, Samuel might want to be traded, but that doesn’t mean the 49ers have to trade him. And make no mistake, Samuel might say it’s not about the money, but it’s about the money.
The kicker is that San Francisco doesn’t need to sign him to give him a new contract anytime soon. The South Carolina product and former second-round draft pick has a cap hit of $4.89 million for this upcoming season. After this season, he wouldn’t necessarily become a free agent, either, thanks to the franchise tag.
The Niners could even franchise tag him two, three years in a row.
And thanks to the 2020 collective bargaining agreement, holdouts are a thing of the past. Samuel cannot afford to go that route.
NFL teams have the upper hand in negotiations with any non-quarterback in the league. Yes, even for a player as special as Samuel.
So the do-it-all offensive weapon is trying to level the playing field with this trade demand. While it’s not a good play, it’s his best play.
And it might just be enough to force the Niners into making a bet on Samuel in the coming days.
It’s certainly put them in a no-win scenario.
That bet could be in the form of a massive new contract with the 49ers. Yes, that’s still very much on the table. Samuel is looking for a market-rate deal that would make him the 10th NFL receiver to be paid more than $20 million per season.
The bet could be the 49ers doing nothing and dragging this drama into training camp. Not ideal, but possible.
But it also could be the Niners bet against Samuel and trade him. Grab some draft picks, maybe some players and let some other team sign him to a mega-contract.
Truth be told, I don’t think there’s a right answer here. There’s too much risk no matter which route the Niners go.
At the core of Samuel’s trade demand and the 49ers’ big-money conundrum are the wide receiver’s versatility and his role in the San Francisco offense.
The quantitative realm has taken over every big-money sport in the last two decades. Treating games like hedge funds have ruined baseball, redefined the game of basketball and created incredible upsets in world soccer.
Even football has been touched by the analytics movement, too.
And while there’s still plenty of debate over fourth-down decisions and the optimal number of times to throw the ball in a game, the old-school football world and the new analytics-driven regimes can agree on one thing: Don’t pay running backs.
They simply take too many hits. The toll on their bodies is too high. Inevitably, production diminishes while contracts remain in place, often escalating in value as the years progress.
Once the premier position in the sport, running backs have become downright disposable in the NFL.
And a great deal of Samuel’s value to the 49ers comes from the fact that he can play running back.
Now, it must be noted that Samuel embraced the role, dubbing himself a “wide back” and repeatedly saying he was happy with his usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
In all, Samuel had 136 touches from scrimmage last season and totaled 1,770 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was everything to the Niners in 2021 — unquestionably the most valuable player on a team that went to the NFC Championship Game.
If the 49ers lose that this offseason, they could find themselves out of Super Bowl contention.
But that doesn’t mean the Niners should give Samuel whatever he wants.
Past performance doesn’t equal future results. And new contracts are only paying for the latter.
Not only was Samuel lining up as a true running back at times last season, he was also taking serious hits over the middle of the field nearly every time he caught the ball.
In 2021, Samuel led the NFL in yards per catch with 18.2 — an incredible number.
He did that despite having an average depth of target of 8.1 yards.
And while Samuel is fast, he wasn’t always outrunning defenders to get those extra yards after the catch.
No, he was running through defensive backs and linebackers. Even when he wasn’t in the backfield, he was effectively playing running back in the 49ers’ offense. That hardly seems sustainable.
For a player who entered the league with longevity concerns and who has already missed more than 20% of the Niners’ regular-season games in his three-year career, this wear-and-tear is an even bigger problem. It’s likely the cause of Samuel’s desire to be paid as soon as possible.
From the Niners’ perspective, you can’t forget that the majority of those games Samuel missed came in a 2020 season where Samuel — as his college coach Will Muschamp predicted — came into training camp overweight and nursed injuries all season. Shanahan has openly discussed Samuel’s weight countless times since drafting him. It’s no doubt a serious concern for the Niners.
So now, after coming into camp in great shape and subsequently one of the best players in football for one season, Samuel is asking for All-Pro money for the next four or five years.
Tricky doesn’t even begin to describe the complexity of this situation.
Which means that the 49ers’ decision is going to come down to trust.
Samuel is asking the 49ers to make a $100 million bet on him. He’s asking them to trust that he’ll repeat his 2021 season in 2022 and beyond.
Do the 49ers trust him?
Posturing and ultimatums aside, the next move is the 49ers. What they do will provide us with the answer to that key question shape this team for years to come.
London only played eight games after his season ended with a broken ankle, but his size, athleticism, and flair for the spectacular catch (reminiscent of Mike Evans) will make him a problem for defensive coordinators in the NFL. Projected: Top 15
London only played eight games after his season ended with a broken ankle, but his size, athleticism, and flair for the spectacular catch (reminiscent of Mike Evans) will make him a problem for defensive coordinators in the NFL. Projected: Top 15
Williams has sprinter speed and is a threat to score anytime the ball is in his hands — he set an Alabama single-season record and led the FBS with four touchdowns of 70-plus yards in 2021. He's also proven to be a talented gunner on punt coverage (nine career tackles). He was in the mix to be the first wide receiver drafted before he tore his ACL in the national championship game. Projected: Round 1
Brynn Anderson
Williams has sprinter speed and is a threat to score anytime the ball is in his hands — he set an Alabama single-season record and led the FBS with four touchdowns of 70-plus yards in 2021. He's also proven to be a talented gunner on punt coverage (nine career tackles). He was in the mix to be the first wide receiver drafted before he tore his ACL in the national championship game. Projected: Round 1
Wilson leaves Columbus ranked top 10 in receptions (143), receiving yards (2,213) and receiving touchdowns (23) for the Buckeyes. He can threaten a defense at every level, but will need to improve against physical press corners because of his lean frame and play strength. Projected: Top 15
Jay LaPrete
Wilson leaves Columbus ranked top 10 in receptions (143), receiving yards (2,213) and receiving touchdowns (23) for the Buckeyes. He can threaten a defense at every level, but will need to improve against physical press corners because of his lean frame and play strength. Projected: Top 15
It's rare you find a route technician with reliable hands who can also run this fast. Olave surpassed David Boston as the Buckeyes' all-time leader in touchdown receptions (35). Projected: Round 1
Jay LaPrete
It's rare you find a route technician with reliable hands who can also run this fast. Olave surpassed David Boston as the Buckeyes' all-time leader in touchdown receptions (35). Projected: Round 1
Dotson features the game-breaking speed to beat defenses at all three levels, has excellent hands (only two drops on 138 targets in 2021) and is good against press coverage despite his size. Projected: Rounds 1-2
Barry Reeger
Dotson features the game-breaking speed to beat defenses at all three levels, has excellent hands (only two drops on 138 targets in 2021) and is good against press coverage despite his size. Projected: Rounds 1-2
There are shades of Deebo Samuel here, but in a linebacker-sized package. Burks' physicality, acceleration and vision make him a terror after the catch — he broke 15 tackles on 66 receptions in 2021 — but there is work to do as route runner. Projected: Round 1
Michael Woods
There are shades of Deebo Samuel here, but in a linebacker-sized package. Burks' physicality, acceleration and vision make him a terror after the catch — he broke 15 tackles on 66 receptions in 2021 — but there is work to do as route runner. Projected: Round 1
Moore's elite agility makes him a nightmare in the open field, but he's even more difficult to bring down if a defender gets their hands on him — he broke an FBS-high 26 tackles last year. Speaking of hands, his measured larger than DeAndre Hopkins (known for his giant mitts) — 10 1/4 to 10 inches even. Projected: Rounds 1-2
Keith Srakocic
Moore's elite agility makes him a nightmare in the open field, but he's even more difficult to bring down if a defender gets their hands on him — he broke an FBS-high 26 tackles last year. Speaking of hands, his measured larger than DeAndre Hopkins (known for his giant mitts) — 10 1/4 to 10 inches even. Projected: Rounds 1-2
There aren't many one-on-one battles Pickens won't win. Over 70% of his career catches resulted in a first down or touchdown. Maturity and durability concerns could hurt his draft stock. Projected: Rounds 1-2
Brynn Anderson
There aren't many one-on-one battles Pickens won't win. Over 70% of his career catches resulted in a first down or touchdown. Maturity and durability concerns could hurt his draft stock. Projected: Rounds 1-2
Watson is a classic size/speed combo who has proven to be one of the best home-run hitters in the FCS (20.4 yards per reception during his career) with four touchdowns of at least 65 yards in 2021. Drops are a concern and he's never faced an FBS opponent. Projected: Round 2
Michael Ainsworth
Watson is a classic size/speed combo who has proven to be one of the best home-run hitters in the FCS (20.4 yards per reception during his career) with four touchdowns of at least 65 yards in 2021. Drops are a concern and he's never faced an FBS opponent. Projected: Round 2
Tolbert faced only one Power 5 program over his final 34 games, but showcased his talent with seven receptions, 143 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee last November. He considered offers to attend Michigan State and Vanderbilt, but chose to stay close to home. Projected: Round 2
Butch Dill
Tolbert faced only one Power 5 program over his final 34 games, but showcased his talent with seven receptions, 143 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee last November. He considered offers to attend Michigan State and Vanderbilt, but chose to stay close to home. Projected: Round 2
Bell's route-running is advanced and his YAC ability should make him an impact player early in his career. He doesn't feature the explosive athletic traits some of the higher-ranked prospects do, but he was one of the most productive players at the position in the entire nation during his time in West Lafayette — Bell finished his career with 101.2 receiving yards per game (No. 1 among all active FBS players in 2021). Projected: Rounds 2-3
Khalil Shakir (Sr., Boise State, 5-11, 196)
Shakir is one of the best route-runners in this draft, and is a threat after the catch. The team captain is a jack-of-all-trades who had 71 carries and five pass attempts during his collegiate career. Projected: Rounds 2-3
John Metchie III (Jr., Alabama, 5-11, 187)
Medical evaluations will be important — Metchie was diagnosed with an enlarged heart in high school and suffered a torn ACL in last year's SEC Championship — but he was very productive for the Crimson Tide the last two seasons and is capable of playing inside or outside. Projected: Rounds 2-3
Kyle Phillips (Jr., UCLA, 5-11, 189)
Philips was the biggest star of the Shrine Bowl and virtually uncoverable throughout the week. His size dictates he'll primarily play in the slot at the next level, but his exceptional hands and route-running capabilities should make him a contributor early on. Projected: Rounds 3-4
Alec Pierce (Sr., Cincinnati, 6-3, 211)
Pierce features prototypical size at the position in a draft class that is lacking it. He's still developing as a route runner, but this team captain features excellent ball skills and smooth athleticism — coaches experimented with him at linebacker in his freshman season. Projected: Rounds 3-4
Wan'Dale Robinson (Jr., Kentucky, 5-8, 178)
Robinson is undersized, but his skill set translates to being a slot receiver or return man in the NFL who can create big plays when he gets the ball in space. He transferred from Nebraska and produced 1,334 yards on 104 receptions and seven touchdowns his first season in the SEC. Projected: Rounds 3-4
Calvin Austin III (Sr., Memphis, 5-7, 170)
Austin is an explosive track athlete who isn't getting any bigger, but his surprising ball skills and immense return capabilities will provide a future at the next level. Projected: Rounds 3-6
Justyn Ross (Jr., Clemson, 6-3, 205)
Ross' freshman season screamed future first-rounder — he led the Tigers with 46 receptions for 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns — but then he missed the entire 2020 season due to a congenital fusion condition of his neck and spine that required surgery. Can he return to his pre-injury form? Projected: Rounds 4-7
Kevin Austin Jr. (Jr., Notre Dame, 6-2, 200)
Austin is one of the biggest risk-reward prospects in this draft. His talent and athleticism scream top-level prospect, but injuries and maturity issues essentially kept him off the field until 2021, when we finally caught a glimpse of his true potential. Projected: Rounds 5-7
Makai Polk (So., Mississippi State, 6-3, 195)
Polk set single-season school records for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,046) in his only season at Starkville. Projected: Rounds 4-7
Michael Conroy
David Bell (Jr., Purdue, 6-0, 212)
Bell's route-running is advanced and his YAC ability should make him an impact player early in his career. He doesn't feature the explosive athletic traits some of the higher-ranked prospects do, but he was one of the most productive players at the position in the entire nation during his time in West Lafayette — Bell finished his career with 101.2 receiving yards per game (No. 1 among all active FBS players in 2021). Projected: Rounds 2-3
Khalil Shakir (Sr., Boise State, 5-11, 196)
Shakir is one of the best route-runners in this draft, and is a threat after the catch. The team captain is a jack-of-all-trades who had 71 carries and five pass attempts during his collegiate career. Projected: Rounds 2-3
John Metchie III (Jr., Alabama, 5-11, 187)
Medical evaluations will be important — Metchie was diagnosed with an enlarged heart in high school and suffered a torn ACL in last year's SEC Championship — but he was very productive for the Crimson Tide the last two seasons and is capable of playing inside or outside. Projected: Rounds 2-3
Kyle Phillips (Jr., UCLA, 5-11, 189)
Philips was the biggest star of the Shrine Bowl and virtually uncoverable throughout the week. His size dictates he'll primarily play in the slot at the next level, but his exceptional hands and route-running capabilities should make him a contributor early on. Projected: Rounds 3-4
Alec Pierce (Sr., Cincinnati, 6-3, 211)
Pierce features prototypical size at the position in a draft class that is lacking it. He's still developing as a route runner, but this team captain features excellent ball skills and smooth athleticism — coaches experimented with him at linebacker in his freshman season. Projected: Rounds 3-4
Wan'Dale Robinson (Jr., Kentucky, 5-8, 178)
Robinson is undersized, but his skill set translates to being a slot receiver or return man in the NFL who can create big plays when he gets the ball in space. He transferred from Nebraska and produced 1,334 yards on 104 receptions and seven touchdowns his first season in the SEC. Projected: Rounds 3-4
Calvin Austin III (Sr., Memphis, 5-7, 170)
Austin is an explosive track athlete who isn't getting any bigger, but his surprising ball skills and immense return capabilities will provide a future at the next level. Projected: Rounds 3-6
Justyn Ross (Jr., Clemson, 6-3, 205)
Ross' freshman season screamed future first-rounder — he led the Tigers with 46 receptions for 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns — but then he missed the entire 2020 season due to a congenital fusion condition of his neck and spine that required surgery. Can he return to his pre-injury form? Projected: Rounds 4-7
Kevin Austin Jr. (Jr., Notre Dame, 6-2, 200)
Austin is one of the biggest risk-reward prospects in this draft. His talent and athleticism scream top-level prospect, but injuries and maturity issues essentially kept him off the field until 2021, when we finally caught a glimpse of his true potential. Projected: Rounds 5-7
Makai Polk (So., Mississippi State, 6-3, 195)
Polk set single-season school records for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,046) in his only season at Starkville. Projected: Rounds 4-7
Deebo Samuel (19) of the San Francisco 49ers carries the ball after a reception against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022, in Arlington, Texas. (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images/TNS)
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images North America/TNS
Deebo Samuel (19) of the San Francisco 49ers carries the ball after a reception against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at AT&T Stadium on January 16, 2022, in Arlington, Texas. (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images/TNS)
