2023 Oscar Predictions: Will ‘Everything’ take everything?

The glitz and glamour of the Oscars is not enough to mask the controversies surrounding the coveted awards ceremony. Conceptualized in 1927 by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the first Academy Awards ceremony was held in 1929 to honor exceptional work in film.

Since then, an Oscar has become one of the most prestigious awards in the film industry. Its prominence in the field has also made others question how reflective a Best Picture win is of a film's overall quality. In any given year, many cinephiles often feel their favorite films, directors, and actors are snubbed during awards season. Others have accused the Oscars of genre bias, with foreign language films often being pushed to the side in major categories. With all this in mind, how closely does an Oscar win match critical opinion?

Stacker ranked the 30 Best Picture winners most out of step with critical opinion in Oscars history using Metacritic ratings. To gauge which films were the most overrated by the Academy, each Best Picture winner's Metascore—what Metacritic calls its critical review index, which is graded out of 100—was compared to the highest-rated nominee in the same year. Winners with the largest differences made this list, with ties broken by each film's overall Metascore.

Some years were not included due to limited Metacritic data—80 years were analyzed out of the award's 95-year existence. It is worth noting that Metascore is a weighted average of published critic reviews. Metacritic's internal weights and selection of publications dictate the scope and scale of the figures presented below.

Over the eight decades analyzed, the 419 Best Picture nominees hold an average Metascore of 80.2, while the winners of the top award fare better with an average 83.6 rating. However, this year's crop of nominees looks to be below par, only mustering an average of 77. It is the second-lowest average Metascore of Best Picture nominees since the Academy expanded the number of nominations in 2010 (the 2012 slate—the year "The Artist" took home Best Picture—had an average Metascore of 76.6).

In addition, of the Best Picture nominees analyzed, 29 (or roughly 36%) turned out to be Best Picture winners and the highest-rated nominee of that year. It means the Cate Blanchett-led "Tár"—this year's top-rated Best Picture nod—has a little better than a one-in-three chance of winning this March. If "Tár" doesn't win, there's a reasonable shot that the Best Picture winner will end up on this list. Besides "The Banshees of Inisherin" and "The Fabelmans," the other seven nominees are all nine or more points lower than "Tár," which would place them among the 30 winners listed here.

When it comes to a foreign film's prospects of winning the top prize, critics are right to doubt its chances. Stacker found that foreign films, when nominated for Best Picture, are most likely to lose out despite outperforming Best Picture-winning films in Metacritic ratings. "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," "Roma," and "Drive My Car" were the highest-rated nominees in the same year they lost to far lower-rated films like "Gladiator," "Green Book," and "CODA," respectively.

What's more, the rating gaps between foreign films and Best Picture-winning films are the widest in our analysis. Both "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and "Roma" led by 27 Metascore points over the eventual Best Picture winners "Gladiator" and "Green Book." Based on these numbers, it's no wonder that it took almost a century for a foreign film to win Best Picture (for Bong Joon-ho's "Parasite" in 2020).

So, if you've ever wondered which Oscar Best Picture films earned more applause than perhaps they should have, read on below.

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- Director: Ben Affleck

- Metascore: 86

- Highest-rated Metascore: 95 ("Zero Dark Thirty" and "Amour")

- Difference: 9 points

Lauded upon its release for Ben Affleck's performance and direction, "Argo" brought CIA operative Tony Mendez's incredible true story to the mainstream, a man who smuggled six American diplomats out of Iran in 1980 by having the group pose as a film production crew. Upon its win for Best Picture, there was criticism around the depiction of the Iranian people and liberties taken with the adaptation of Mendez's memoir, as well as the choice to cast Affleck, a white actor, as a Latino character, and his subsequent dismissal of these criticisms.

Many felt that nominees "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Amour" were snubbed, although controversy surrounded "Zero Dark Thirty" upon its release due to factual inaccuracies and graphic depictions of torture, while "Amour" may have been dismissed due to the French film's difficult subject matter.

- Director: Barry Levinson

- Metascore: 65

- Highest-rated Metascore: 74 ("Dangerous Liaisons")

- Difference: 9 points

1989 was the weakest Oscar year in terms of film critic reviews. The five nominees for Best Picture only averaged a 66 Metascore. "Rain Man" was uncharted territory, depicting the fictional relationship of autistic genius Raymond Babbitt and his younger brother Charlie, played by Dustin Hoffman and Tom Cruise, respectively. While the film provided a broader awareness of autism, some criticize the stereotypes it perpetuates. Meanwhile, the malevolent and erotic period drama "Dangerous Liaisons"—the highest-rated Best Picture nominee of that year—secured three wins out of its seven Academy Award nominations, but it failed to secure a Best Picture victory.

- Director: David Lean

- Metascore: 87

- Highest-rated Metascore: 97 ("12 Angry Men")

- Difference: 10 points

Set in a Japanese prisoner-of war-camp in 1940s Burma, the story of British prisoners and the forced labor of the Burma-Siam Railway has captivated audiences since its release, and is considered to be one of the greatest films of the 20th century. While it secured seven Oscars out of eight nominations, the film has been criticized for its inaccurate portrayal of captured prisoners' cooperation with the Japanese.

That same year, "12 Angry Men," Sidney Lumet's courtroom drama about prejudice and the judicial system, received rave reviews and remains in IMDb's top 10 movie rankings, yet was snubbed for a win by the Oscars despite receiving three nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

- Director: Alfred Hitchcock

- Metascore: 86

- Highest-rated Metascore: 96 ("The Grapes of Wrath" and "The Philadelphia Story")

- Difference: 10 points

While Alfred Hitchcock's stylish psychological and romantic thriller "Rebecca" ultimately won Best Picture, the 1941 Oscars included a strong year for films. Best Picture nominated films in that year with a Metascore averaged 91.8. The top two movies of the year, "The Grapes of Wrath" and "The Philadelphia Story," both rated 96. While these two films brought home awards in other categories that night, the Best Picture prize wasn't in the cards. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. "The Philadelphia Story," on the other hand, was a comedy, a genre not often seen as Best Picture worthy.

- Director: Jonathan Demme

- Metascore: 85

- Highest-rated Metascore: 95 ("Beauty and the Beast")

- Difference: 10 points

While "Silence of the Lambs" remains a twisted and tantalizing tale of psychological horror, the film has been criticized since its release for its offensive and inaccurate portrayal of transgender people through the movie's villain, Buffalo Bill. Despite backlash from the LGBTQ+ community, the film remains the only horror film to win Best Picture and one of only three films to secure wins in all five major Oscar categories.

In comparison, Disney's "Beauty and the Beast" was a spellbinding classic deemed revolutionary for its harmonious unification of hand-drawn and computer animation. It was the first animated film to receive a Best Picture nod, and only three animated films have earned Best Picture nominations to this day. It remains the only animated movie on the list of highest-rated best picture nominees, and its genre may have contributed to its loss to "The Silence of the Lambs" at the awards ceremony.

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- Director: Bernardo Bertolucci

- Metascore: 76

- Highest-rated Metascore: 86 ("Hope and Glory")

- Difference: 10 points

"The Last Emperor" enchanted audiences with its tale of Emperor Pu Yi, who took the throne in 1908 at the age of 3. The Chinese epic swept the 1988 Oscars, securing nine wins. However, it was criticized for historical inaccuracies in depicting Pu Yi's life. In contrast, John Boorman's "Hope and Glory" was a lighthearted turn from his signature violent films. "Hope and Glory" was based on Boorman's boyhood in London during World War II. While it failed to secure Best Picture, it was a critical success. It also won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture and was nominated in five Oscar categories.

- Director: Norman Jewison

- Metascore: 76

- Highest-rated Metascore: 86 ("Bonnie and Clyde")

- Difference: 10 points

While "In the Heat of the Night" took home the prize at the 1968 Oscars, the nominee roster was one of the lowest-rated in Oscar history with an average 68.4 rating, brought down by "Doctor Dolittle," which has the all-time lowest Metascore for Best Picture at 34. Without "Doctor Dolittle," the year's roster would have brought in a respectable 77 Metascore rating.

Meanwhile, the stylish and pulpy "Bonnie and Clyde" was lauded by viewers and some critics but was riddled with controversy due to its glamorization of the Great Depression-era murderers and sexual overtones throughout the film. This might be why "In the Heat of Night" took home Best Picture. Its subject matter, a mystery thriller with a Black police detective who teams with an intolerant Southern sheriff on a murder investigation, was comparatively more palatable.

- Director: John Ford

- Metascore: 88

- Highest-rated Metascore: 100 ("Citizen Kane")

- Difference: 12 points

"How Green was my Valley" is an emotional and tender epic about family, and exemplifies John Ford's masterful direction, with the film earning 10 Oscar nominations and winning five. The 1942 Oscars was a tight race for Best Picture nominees. Submissions included "The Maltese Falcon" (97 Metascore) and "Citizen Kane" (100 Metascore).

The now-classic "Citizen Kane" was one of two Best Picture nominees to obtain a perfect Metascore but not secure a Best Picture win, the second being Richard Linklaters's "Boyhood." Many feel that Orson Welles' "Citizen Kane" was snubbed due to his contentious relationship with William Randolph Hearst, the newspaper mogul on which Welles based his titular character. Indeed, Hollywood bigwigs flocked to Hearst's side. It would take more than two decades for the film to receive its well-deserved accolades.

- Director: Milos Forman

- Metascore: 84

- Highest-rated Metascore: 96 ("Nashville")

- Difference: 12 points

In another tight race, "One Flew Under the Cuckoo's Nest" took home Best Picture, despite having the lowest Metascore among the year's nominees. The film garnered an 84 Metascore versus the average 88.4. While the film and Jack Nicholson's performance are considered some of the greatest of all time, Ken Kesey famously detested the changes made to his novel in the adaptation and the filmmakers' choice to cast Chief as a secondary character, despite his prominence and narration in the novel.

"Nashville," on the other hand, garnered a 96 Metascore. It delighted and captivated with its 24-character musical ensemble but divided audiences as some criticized its portrayal of blue-collar Southerners and country music.

- Director: Robert Zemeckis

- Metascore: 82

- Highest-rated Metascore: 94 ("Pulp Fiction")

- Difference: 12 points

While "Forrest Gump" has warmed the hearts of moviegoers since its release, the emotional yet comedic tale led by a lovable Tom Hanks is no stranger to criticism. Many issues in the movie—such as racism, war, political activism, and mental disabilities—feel oversimplified or stereotypical in their portrayal. Many still feel that underdog "Pulp Fiction" (which garnered the highest Metascore of that slate) should have secured the top prize. That year, "Pulp Fiction" did win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, and Quentin Tarantino went on to direct three more Best Picture nominated films.

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- Director: James L. Brooks

- Metascore: 79

- Highest-rated Metascore: 91 ("The Right Stuff")

- Difference: 12 points

Soapy, dramatic, tear-jerking, and funny, "Terms of Endearment" tells the story of a neurotic mother and her rebellious daughter throughout the years and was met with critical and commercial success. Among the nominees for Best Picture that year was Philip Kaufman's "The Right Stuff," a visually stunning depiction of the Mercury 7 astronauts and Chuck Yeager breaking the sound barrier in 1947. Although the film lost to James L. Brooks' touching directorial debut, the film remains a gripping historical account of post-WWII tensions and new technologies. It kick-started long careers for its main cast.

- Director: Richard Attenborough

- Metascore: 79

- Highest-rated Metascore: 91 ("E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial")

- Difference: 12 points

"E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial" captured the hearts of children and adults alike in Steven Spielberg's masterpiece and is one of the few children's movies to hold the highest Metacritic score among other Best Picture nominated films released the same year. Despite this, Richard Attenborough's "Gandhi" won eight Oscars, including Best Director and Best Picture, although the film was met with mixed receptions from nationalists and historians. Interestingly, Attenborough would go on to star in Spielberg's "Jurassic Park" a decade after this Oscar ceremony.

- Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu

- Metascore: 87

- Highest-rated Metascore: 100 ("Boyhood")

- Difference: 13 points

"Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)" was lauded upon its release for its "one-shot" style in which the movie is seemingly filmed in a single shot and Michael Keaton's portrayal of a washed-up actor's descent into a strange world of magical realism. Despite its accolades, it was up against tough competition—namely, Richard Linklater's "Boyhood," which earned a perfect Metascore rating—and its win for Best Picture surprised many. "Boyhood" made history as a film that took 12 years to make while using the same cast throughout and captured the instability and awe of American childhood.

- Director: George Roy Hill

- Metascore: 83

- Highest-rated Metascore: 97 ("American Graffiti")

- Difference: 14 points

The tale of two con artists in Chicago makes for a sharp-witted but skin-deep adventure in "The Sting," which prompted raised eyebrows at its Best Picture win and 10 total nominations at the 1974 Oscars. George Lucas' "American Graffiti" on the other hand, is a beloved coming-of-age tale set in the dying days of summer inspired by Lucas' upbringing in Modesto, California. The film received five Oscar nominations despite a sleepy start in theaters but has proven lucrative throughout the years, with a domestic lifetime gross of $115 million against an estimated $777,000 budget.

- Director: Vincente Minnelli

- Metascore: 83

- Highest-rated Metascore: 97 ("A Streetcar Named Desire")

- Difference: 14 points

"An American in Paris" paved the way for musicals as strong contenders at the Academy Awards, a departure from the dramas which more often take center stage during Oscar season. Using stunning sets and released in Technicolor, the dazzling film is still lauded for its dance performances and color schemes. "A Streetcar Named Desire" on the other hand, is a stark contrast, a black-and-white depiction of struggles with abuse, violence, and sexuality. Despite being nominated for 12 Oscars and winning four, the film lost in the Best Picture category.

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- Director: Carol Reed

- Metascore: 74

- Highest-rated Metascore: 89 ("Funny Girl")

- Difference: 15 points

Another musical to win Best Picture, "Oliver!" would be the last of its genre to win the coveted award until "Chicago" won in 2003. The win for this family-friendly British film marked an end to the Academy's love affair with extravagant movie musicals. Many were shocked that "Funny Girl," a critical and commercial musical success, did not secure a win, although leading woman Barbra Streisand took home the night's Best Actress award, tying with Katharine Hepburn for "The Lion in Winter."

- Director: Sydney Pollack

- Metascore: 69

- Highest-rated Metascore: 84 ("Prizzi's Honor")

- Difference: 15 points

"Out of Africa" may have taken home seven Oscars including Best Picture, but the film's legacy is marred with criticisms of racism and colonialist ideals perpetuated by the film and its white lead characters, played by Meryl Streep and Robert Redford. Based on Danish aristocrat Karen Blixen's autobiography, the book and movie have been denounced for dehumanizing Africans. When it was filmed on location in Kenya, complaints were made on set as African film extras were demeaned by requests from the filmmakers to appear almost nude during filming.

"Prizzi's Honor," on the other hand, was Jack Huston's penultimate film as a director. It carefully blends a story of romance, crime, and comedy with Jack Nicholson and Kathleen Turner starring as lovers and assassins hired to kill each other.

- Directors: Michael Anderson, John Farrow

- Metascore: 69

- Highest-rated Metascore: 84 ("Giant")

- Difference: 15 points

The Academy may have gotten caught up in the glamour of a big-budget film for the 1957 ceremony. "Around the World in 80 Days," was filled with star-studded cameos and intricate sets. While the film dazzled viewers at the time, "Giant" was a stark contrast among the Best Picture category nominees, a film that touched on timely political issues, such as materialism, racial prejudice, classism, corruption, and women's equality, with the West Texas plains as a stark backdrop. Led by Elizabeth Taylor, Rock Hudson, and James Dean in his final film role, history has taken the side of "Giant" as a more deserving winner for Best Picture.

- Director: Laurence Olivier

- Metascore: 82

- Highest-rated Metascore: 98 ("The Treasure of the Sierra Madre")

- Difference: 16 points

Laurence Olivier's adaptation of "Hamlet" may have shaken Shakespeare devotees at the time with his analysis of the famous play and certain liberties he took while adapting it for the silver screen. Olivier's technical and creative prowess, however, shows in his camerawork, and the Freudian overtones displayed nods to the titular character's tortured subconscious. In that same year, "The Treasure of Sierra Madre," about two Americans in 1920s Mexico searching for gold in the Sierra Madre mountains, was a strong contender for Best Picture, but ultimately lost. It is the highest-rated nominee to not win Best Picture, after "Boyhood" and "Citizen Kane."

- Director: Bruce Beresford

- Metascore: 81

- Highest-rated Metascore: 97 ("My Left Foot")

- Difference: 16 points

Perhaps one of the most controversial films to win Best Picture, "Driving Miss Daisy" was considered a misguided attempt at tackling racism and prejudice in America, although it was a soft try at best. Noticeably excluded from the Best Picture nominations that year was Spike Lee's "Do the Right Thing," a striking social commentary set in Brooklyn as it endures a heat wave. Many felt that the biopic on painter Christy Brown, portrayed by Daniel Day-Lewis in "My Left Foot," was a poignant drama snubbed by the Academy in favor of "Driving Miss Daisy," and is currently one of the highest-rated nominees to lose out on the award, trailing behind "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre."

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- Director: James Cameron

- Metascore: 75

- Highest-rated Metascore: 91 ("L.A. Confidential")

- Difference: 16 points

The highest-grossing Best Picture winner of all time, "Titanic" remains a romantic epic classic, revolutionary in its use of special effects. It nearly swept the 1998 Academy Awards, winning 11 out of 14 nominations. Despite its success, fellow nominee "L.A. Confidential" garnered significantly higher praise from critics but was overshadowed by the critical and commercial success of "Titanic," leaving this gritty tale of police corruption and violence in Los Angeles in the dust.

- Director: Mel Gibson

- Metascore: 68

- Highest-rated Metascore: 84 ("Sense and Sensibility")

- Difference: 16 points

Among the five best picture nominees of 1996, "Braveheart" has the lowest Metascore, while "Sense and Sensibility" received the highest. Mel Gibson's historical epic depicting the Battle of Stirling Bridge is riddled with historical inaccuracies. Despite the glaring dramatic liberties taken, the film's many quotes on freedom continue to ring true in popular culture. Meanwhile, the adaptation of Jane Austen's novel "Sense and Sensibility," written for the screen by star Emma Thompson, is a vast contrast, a lovely and witty tale of two sisters and their romances and responsibilities in the English countryside.

- Director: Robert Benton

- Metascore: 77

- Highest-rated Metascore: 94 ("Apocalypse Now")

- Difference: 17 points

Despite its flaws, "Kramer vs. Kramer" brought the conversation around divorce into the mainstream, with touching performances by Dustin Hoffman and Meryl Streep. Many were surprised that the Vietnam War film "Apocalypse Now" didn't take home the gold that year, as it is widely considered a cinematic masterpiece. The prevailing view at the time (that it took a negative stance on America's role in Vietnam) probably didn't help its case in the end.

- Director: Kevin Costner

- Metascore: 72

- Highest-rated Metascore: 91 ("Goodfellas")

- Difference: 19 points

While "Goodfellas" remains a defining film of the 1990s, it was defeated in the Best Picture category by "Dances with Wolves," directed by and starring Kevin Costner. While the film brought light to the plight of Native Americans, some say it also perpetuated stereotypes and took on the "white savior" trope often seen in feature films. Some Native American actors, however, do acknowledge that the film helped open doors. "Goodfellas," on the other hand, is a gritty and morally ambiguous story of criminals. Ultimately, "Dancing with Wolves" proved more palatable for Academy voters.

- Director: Sian Heder

- Metascore: 72

- Highest-rated Metascore: 91 ("Drive My Car")

- Difference: 19 points

While "CODA" proved to be inspirational in its casting—with the three deaf characters in the film being portrayed by deaf actors—the film was criticized for relying heavily on overused plotlines for deaf characters. In contrast, the critically acclaimed "Drive My Car" by Japanese director Ryûsuke Hamaguchi proved to be another snub by the Oscars for a foreign language film taking Best Picture. The story, which centers on an actor and director coping with his wife's sudden passing, is decidedly more somber compared to "CODA."

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- Director: Ron Howard

- Metascore: 72

- Highest-rated Metascore: 92 ("The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring")

- Difference: 20 points

While "A Beautiful Mind" enchanted viewers at the time, controversy has met the film for what many consider to be an inaccurate and dangerous portrayal of schizophrenia, as Russell Crowe's character seemingly uses sheer willpower to conquer the illness and abandons his medications. "A Beautiful Mind" beat out more critically acclaimed contenders like "Gosford Park" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," with the latter receiving 13 nominations at the 2002 Academy Awards.

- Director: Paul Haggis

- Metascore: 66

- Highest-rated Metascore: 88 ("Capote")

- Difference: 22 points

"Crash" delighted and captivated audiences upon its release, but has not withstood the test of time, receiving backlash upon its Best Picture win for its shallow examination of racial prejudice. It is the third-lowest Best Picture-winning Metascore ever and the lowest-rated nominee from the 2006 Oscars. Philip Seymour Hoffman's portrayal of controversial writer Truman Capote in "Capote" is what makes the film shine. Both "Capote" and "Brokeback Mountain" are considered to be Best Picture snubs of that year.

- Director: John G. Avildsen

- Metascore: 70

- Highest-rated Metascore: 94 ("Taxi Driver")

- Difference: 24 points

While "Rocky" remains a classic in sports film history, the film tied with "Bound for Glory" as the lowest-rated Metascore of the five Best Picture nominees that year. With critically applauded films like "Network" and "All the President's Men" (Metascores 83 and 84, respectively) in the running, it was surprising to some that the feel-good Sylvester Stallone film won the Academy's most prestigious award. While criticism was mixed upon the release of Martin Scorsese's dark and twisted crime drama "Taxi Driver," the film has been dubbed one of the greatest films of the last century. Sadly, its portrait of a deranged lone gunman has become relevant over time.

- Director: Peter Farrelly

- Metascore: 69

- Highest-rated Metascore: 96 ("Roma")

- Difference: 27 points

When "Green Book" won Best Picture, it was met with widespread criticism despite early success in the festival circuit, winning the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award. Its critics pointed out that its narrative easily fell into the trap of a watered-down examination of racism. What's more, despite the title, the movie hardly acknowledged the "Negro Motorist Green Book," a guide written by Victor H. Green for African American travelers throughout the country, designating safe zones and warning of treacherous and deadly sundown towns.

Despite its loss, Alfonso Cuarón's emotionally turbulent black-and-white film, "Roma" received awards for Best Director, Cinematography, and was the first Mexican film to win Best Foreign Language Film.

- Director: Ridley Scott

- Metascore: 67

- Highest-rated Metascore: 94 ("Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon")

- Difference: 27 points

The brutal historical epic starring Russell Crowe, marketed as an action-packed summer blockbuster, "Gladiator" secured 12 Oscar nominations, walking away with wins in five categories including Best Picture.

Meanwhile, "Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon" awed audiences and immersed them in an ancient Chinese world filled with masterful, gravity-defying warriors. The Taiwanese film, directed by Ang Lee, seemed like a strong contender for Best Picture but ultimately settled for wins in Best Foreign Language Film, Art Direction, Original Score, and Cinematography. Upon its release, it became the only non-English language film to make it over the $100 million mark in the U.S. on a $17 million budget. Furthermore, wuxia, the Chinese martial arts film genre, has cemented itself as a classic in worldwide cinema.

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The Academy Awards ceremony is Hollywood's biggest night, and in the weeks leading into the 95th soiree of pomp and cinematic excellence, film-world pundits have pored over this year's facts, figures, and numbers to get down to the nitty-gritty of making their predictions of who will win and who will simply smile and politely clap.

Film fans will only know the answer to those questions on Oscar night when those hallowed envelopes are opened and all suspense comes to an end. But until then, one can make logical predictions based on the awards the nominated films have already won and been nominated for so far. Handily, Metacritic keeps an ongoing scoreboard based on first-place wins, second-place wins, and overall nominations, all of which are then translated to cumulative points to get a sense of how well films are faring during awards season.

Stacker looked at Metacritic's film awards and nominations scorecard for 2022 films and cross-referenced it with Oscar nominations to determine which of the nominees are most likely to win 12 major categories based on how many nominations and wins they've received in previous awards shows, critics' circles, and other significant voting bodies. The cinematography category was excluded because none of the six films Metacritic listed as most likely to win were nominated—proving it to be the most surprising category of the year.

So, are you wondering which films currently dominate the scoreboard, and which upsets might come in at the last minute to steal the glory? Take a look at how things are shaping up in anticipation of this year's Academy Awards.

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- Top nominee: "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Second: "The Banshees of Inisherin"

- Third: "Tár"

In the lead with 11 overall Oscar nominations and 26 first-place wins so far, gonzo action-comedy-drama "Everything Everywhere All at Once" might seem like the obvious Oscar front-runner. And while it's certainly an impressive film with technical prowess and an impactful storyline, this genre-bending spectacle is not a classic Best Picture winner. Sure, there are sometimes outliers where genres such as horror or fantasy take the top prize—think "The Silence of the Lambs'' or, more recently, "The Shape of Water."

But it feels less likely that an absurdist movie with butt-plug jokes would win Best Picture when up against a classic, well-acted emotional drama like "The Banshees of Inisherin," or a searing psychological drama with timely themes like "Tár," led by an acting heavyweight like Cate Blanchett. But upsets are common, and the overwhelmingly favorable critical and audience reception to "Everywhere" puts the film in an agreeable position.

However, anyone making early predictions also shouldn't count out Steven Spielberg's "The Fabelmans"—which won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama and happens to be about the childhood of one of Hollywood's favorite directors—as a possible winner. Alternatively, the box-office success and overwhelmingly positive audience reception of "Top Gun: Maverick" has led some awards pundits to believe it could benefit from the Academy's use of a preferential ballot system for the Best Picture category, positioning the Tom Cruise vehicle as a threat to win the top prize.

- Top nominee: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Second: Todd Field, "Tár"

- Third: Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"

"Everything Everywhere All at Once" is leading the pack in Best Director prizes this season, though "Tár" is not far behind, as the two films are both vying for wins in multiple top categories. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, better known as the Daniels, would be an exciting pick for Best Director, as oddball and ingenious indie darlings who rose from obscurity to craft what many have deemed the best film of 2022.

And then we have Todd Field, director of "Tár" and beloved by many as Nick Nightingale of Stanley Kubrick's "Eyes Wide Shut," who returned to the director's chair after a whopping 16 years and came out swinging with a taut, formally impressive, and nuanced take on cancel culture.

With 28 wins thus far for the Daniels and only four for Field, it appears the Daniels should have this race locked up, but the Best Director winner could still be a dark horse. Steven Spielberg's feel-good autobiographical drama "The Fabelmans" won the hearts of critics and audiences alike, and a long-time industry veteran honored for his most personal film might be a "safer" choice for Academy voters.

- Top nominee: Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Second: Cate Blanchett, "Tár"

- Third: Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans"

Possibly the most heated race this Oscars season is the Best Actress category, widely seen as neck-and-neck between Michelle Yeoh in "Everything Everywhere All at Once" and Cate Blanchett in "Tár." Both actresses are industry veterans with acclaimed filmographies, giving two of the best performances of their careers. Where they diverge, however, is the fact that Yeoh is the first East Asian actress to be nominated for this category—her win would both be long-deserved and a major step forward for the American film industry.

On the other hand, while Blanchett has already won two Oscars—including Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" in 2014—she gives a career-defining performance as Lydia Tár. Though Yeoh is currently ahead of Blanchett with an eight-point lead on Metacritic, once again, "The Fabelmans" pops in with a possible (however unlikely) upset from Michelle Williams, a five-time Oscar nominee whose performance as the erratic and emotionally distraught Mitzi Fabelman impressed many.

- Top nominee: Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

- Second: Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"

- Third: Austin Butler, "Elvis"

Though the Best Actress category is one of the greatest face-offs of this Oscars season, the Best Actor category is just as tricky of a toss-up—split as it is between three incredible performances.

First, you have Colin Farrell, an eclectic character actor finally getting his due for a darkly funny, sensitive, and subtle performance in "The Banshees of Inisherin." Then you have Brendan Fraser in "The Whale," which is not only considered his "comeback" role but clearly displays the emotional depth he's always been capable of but perhaps was previously not afforded the opportunity to fully bring out. But perhaps the darkest of all dark horses is Austin Butler, a young actor mostly known for spots on Disney Channel and Nickelodeon productions, practically emerging from thin air to prove himself a force to be reckoned with through his embodiment of Elvis Presley in Baz Luhrmann's "Elvis."

With 27 first-place wins, Farrell's got a 34-point lead on Fraser and a 63-point lead on Butler—but Butler's Best Actor - Drama Golden Globe win might prove to work in his favor for getting that Oscar gold. While Farrell also won the Best Actor - Musical or Comedy prize at the Globes, Butler's transformative work in a musician biopic is the type of lead performance the Oscars have typically rewarded in recent years (look no further than Rami Malek's win for "Bohemian Rhapsody" or when Renée Zellweger won for "Judy.")

And while Fraser is definitely still in the race, it should be noted the biggest disadvantage to him is a lack of a Best Picture nomination for his film; no actor has won this award for a film not nominated for the top prize since Jeff Bridges won for "Crazy Heart" in 2010.

- Top nominee: Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

- Second: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu (tie), "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Third: Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

With two nominations in this category, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" has an ample edge in the Supporting Actress category. Between the two choices, a win for rising star Stephanie Hsu would be considered by many to be a bit more deserved—her chameleonic newcomer performance is remarkable, and while Curtis is great as always, a win would read more like a legacy achievement as opposed to awarding a more dynamic performance.

Similarly, though not the same, is Angela Bassett in the sequel to "Black Panther." Bassett is a widely acclaimed, previously nominated veteran actor who gives a strong showing in the popular Marvel film, but the strength of her work is perhaps not as surprising as that of Kerry Condon in "The Banshees of Inisherin." The Irish actress is far from a household name in America, but she managed to eschew demographic obscurity to break hearts with her multilayered performance. But, while Condon appears to be the front-runner on paper, with 15 wins and 68 overall points, the three other actresses don't trail too far behind her.

With Bassett already picking up wins from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards—both considered key precursors likely to align with the Academy Awards—the queen of Wakanda just might strike Oscar gold.

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- Top nominee: Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Second: Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

- Third: Barry Keoghan, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

"The Banshees of Inisherin" has an edge over all but one of the other nominees in the Supporting Actor category. But will either of the two nominated actors end up besting the front-runner? Brendan Gleeson is an industry workhorse who gives a stunning and anxiety-inducing performance as the isolationist Colm in "Banshees," but young Barry Keoghan quite nearly surpasses him, imbuing pathos and tragedy into the troubled character of Dominic Kearney. Still, Gleeson's currently got a 24-point lead on Keoghan, taking in four wins against Keoghan's zero thus far.

Both are undoubtedly dwarfed by current front-runner Ke Huy Quan—best known for playing Short Round as a kid in "Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom"—who gives an unforgettably stirring turn in "Everything Everywhere All at Once" that functions also as his triumphant acting comeback story. With a whopping 39 wins and 129 points, Quan's path to victory may already be laid out for him.

- Top nominee: Sarah Polley, "Women Talking"

- Second: Rian Johnson, "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

- Third: no other nominees qualified

The Adapted Screenplay category will likely end up a showdown between "Women Talking" and "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery," two films that, funnily enough, could not possibly be more dissimilar. "Glass Onion" is actually an original script nominated in the Adapted category because the film carries over the character of Benoit Blanc (Daniel Craig) from the first "Knives Out" film, and thus qualifies under Academy rules as a sequel. Still, "Glass Onion" director Rian Johnson's script is a twisty, hilarious, and smart piece of writing. The film was immensely popular on Netflix, so it makes sense why it's a front-runner favorite.

But Sarah Polley's "Women Talking," adapted from Miriam Toews' novel of the same name, brings a harrowing piece of drama to life, one based on real events, no less. Polley's film is also only one of two movies in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture—the other being "All Quiet on the Western Front"—which typically is an advantage in screenplay categories. "Women Talking" as of this writing has 13 first-place wins to "Glass Onion's" seven and a 19-point lead overall, but it's still anyone's game at this point.

- Top nominee: Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

- Second: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Third: Todd Field, "Tár"

The Original Screenplay category will be another showdown between this year's heaviest award-season hitters.

Will it be the subdued but agonizing tragicomedy that is Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin," which works to the playwright director's strengths on film? Will the Daniels snag it for "Everything Everywhere All at Once," a film that seamlessly blends absurd humor, heart-rending family drama, and an interconnected sci-fi multiverse into something that has resonated with millions? Or, will Todd Field swoop in and steal it for "Tár," a sharp, tense drama that plays like a thriller, increasingly making audiences question their allegiance to protagonist Lydia Tár?

Looking at the facts and figures, "Banshees" and "Everything Everywhere" are, as of this writing, tied with 19 first-place wins apiece, but "Banshees" tops with 86 points, while "Everything Everywhere" follows closely with 80. The five first-place wins and 48 points for "Tár" might seem like a long shot, but anything is possible on Hollywood's biggest night. The category may be decided by whichever film ends up winning Best Picture, as many winners of the top prize are often paired with a screenplay victory.

- Top nominee: Paul Rogers, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

- Second: Eddie Hamilton, "Top Gun: Maverick"

- Third: Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, "Elvis"

As with many of the top categories listed already, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is the clear favorite to win for Film Editing. Paul Rogers crafts an exhilarating but careful work of action-comedy cinema, making the two-plus hour film fly by seamlessly. But then you've got "Top Gun: Maverick," an expertly put-together action thrill ride edited by Eddie Hamilton, and once again "Elvis" has worked its way into dark horse territory, sparking a potential upset.

Though "Elvis" doesn't yet have any first-place wins, it's a fan-favorite film and a master class in creative—and sometimes dizzying—editing choices. At the moment, "Everything Everywhere" has a comfortable lead in the race with 20 first-place wins and 66 points, leaving both "Top Gun" (with only one first-place win) and "Elvis" in its dust. But this is one category capable of defying expectations.

- Top nominee: "All Quiet on the Western Front", Germany

- Second: "EO", Poland

- Third: "Close", Belgium

The International Feature Film race is a three-film standoff between a Netflix adaptation of classic literature, an avant-garde examination of animal welfare, and a coming-of-age story about two young boys. The latter, "Close," was directed by international darling Lukas Dhont, who made waves with his 2018 feature debut, "Girl," about a transgender ballerina. Jerzy Skolimowski's experimental take on the life of a donkey, "EO," is loosely inspired by Robert Bresson's film "Au Hasard Balthazar."

And then there's Netflix's adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque's classic war novel which, like its source material, limns the psychological toll of trench warfare. All three films are nearly neck-and-neck with award wins and nominations, accruing 33, 30, and 35 points, respectively. However, it's a fairly simple guess as to who will win the category based on similar patterns with recent winners in this category such as "Drive My Car," "Parasite," and "Roma": The winner will most likely be the only film with multiple Oscar nominations including Best Picture, which this year is "All Quiet on the Western Front."

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- Top nominee: "All the Beauty and the Bloodshed"

- Second: "Fire of Love"

- Third: "All That Breathes"

"All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" made a huge splash in the Oscar race after winning the Golden Lion at the 2022 Venice Film Festival, and it has been cleaning up the documentary category since then. A moving, complex look at the life and career of artist and anti-Sackler family activist Nan Goldin, "Bloodshed" currently tops the charts with 69 points and 14 first-place wins.

But despite all the buzz, it's closely followed by another powerhouse documentary feature: "Fire of Love," an intimate look at the romance between famed, married volcanologists the Kraffts, who died tragically together while doing what they loved. "Fire of Love" has taken in 10 first-place wins, though a potential upset could be found in "All That Breathes," which takes a look at the precarious environment (social and physical) of New Delhi, and two brothers who risk their lives to save the birds put at risk by it.

But with 69 points for "Bloodshed" and 64 for "Fire of Love," an Oscar win for "All That Breathes" could be a far cry with only 28 points.

- Top nominee: "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"

- Second: "Marcel the Shell with Shoes On"

- Third: "Turning Red"

The last time the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film went to a film that was not distributed by the House of Mouse, the year was 2018—and before that, it was seven years since Paramount and Nickelodeon's "Rango" snagged the award in 2011.

It's a track record that might lead one to believe that, despite "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio," a painstakingly crafted and incredible work of art currently leading the pack with 23 first-place wins and 94 overall points this awards season, the power of Disney-Pixar's winsome coming-of-age "Turning Red" can't be shrugged off. With only three first-place wins and 42 points, "Turning Red" is even trailing behind "Marcel the Shell with Shoes On," the A24 stop-motion/live-action hybrid that has charmed audiences, critics, and awards voters alike.

Interestingly, "Pinocchio" was predicted by many awards pundits to snag at least one additional Oscar nomination—possibly for Original Score, Original Song, or Production Design—but came up short with only the Animated Feature nod, which could mean it isn't as strong of a front-runner as some might suppose. Best Animated Feature Film might seem like a showdown between beloved characters Pinocchio and Marcel the Shell, but red pandas have been known to be aggressive.

11 nominations. Digital rental.

The A24-produced indie “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has been a critical success and crowd-pleaser since it came out last spring. The film is nominated for best picture and Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis received nods for their performances. Yeoh, Quan and Hsu carry a mind-bending multiverse story about a Chinese American family’s disconnection and how they find each other again through the existence of other versions of themselves.

The film is available for streaming on Paramount+ with a Showtime add-on.

Nine nominations. HBO Max.

Securing a best picture nomination and nods for Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson and Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” tells a tale of the ebbs and flows of the friendship between Farrell’s Pádraic and Gleeson’s Colm while highlighting haunting Irish landscapes.

It can be streamed on HBO Max and rented on YouTube and Amazon.

Nine nominations. Netflix.

“All Quiet on the Western Front,” an unflinching German-language adaptation of a classic antiwar novel about life and death in the World War I trenches, is nominated for best picture and a slew of other Oscars.

The film is available to stream on Netflix.

Eight nominations. HBO Max.

In “Elvis,” Baz Luhrmann’s vision transforms the relatively unknown former child actor Austin Butler into the King. The unconventional biopic tells the life of Elvis Presley from the perspective of his former manager, Colonel Tom Parker, played by Tom Hanks. Butler snagged a best actor nomination and the film received a nod for best picture and director.

The film is available to stream on HBO Max.

Eight nominations. Digital rental.

Steven Spielberg’s most personal film yet documents the joys and ultimate perils that fragment the Fabelman family forever. In a love letter to film and his family, Spielberg allows viewers to see behind his passion for film and his search for the meaning of family and life. Spielberg is nominated for best director and his film is nominated for best picture, while Michelle Williams up for best actress.

The film is available to purchase on Amazon.

Seven nominations. Digital rental.

Cate Blanchett plays a renowned conductor, Lydia Tár. As the titular character, she is cunning, talented and on too high of a pedestal to fall — but she does. “Tár," which is nominated for best picture and best actress, deals with the dichotomy between power and art and takes on the culture wars dominating politics and popular discourse.

It is available for rent and purchase on Amazon and iTunes and will stream exclusively on Peacock beginning Jan. 27.

Six nominations. Digital rental.

Thirty-six years after the original “Top Gun,” “Top Gun: Maverick” is nominated for best picture. Tom Cruise reprises his role as “Maverick,” taking on a leadership and mentor role for supporting cast members Miles Teller and Glen Powell.

“Top Gun: Maverick” is available for rental on Paramount+ and Amazon.

Four nominations. Still in theaters.

After a 13-year wait, “Avatar: The Way of Water” delves into the journey of original “Avatar” main character Jake Sully’s family through adversity and loss. Director James Cameron builds a spiritual and visually compelling world in this sequel that stars Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldaña.

Nominated for best picture, the film is still in theaters and is not yet available for streaming.

Four nominations Digital rental.

Swedish filmmaker Ruben Östlund has created a prickly social satire examining race, wealth, social class and inequality and secured a best director nomination in the process. It stars the late Charlbi Dean and Harris Dickinson as a model/influencer couple who end up on a sponsored yacht trip with other wealthy guests. Chaos ensues when the yacht gets stuck in the middle of a storm and the guests end up on a deserted island. The film later focuses on maid-turned-ringleader Abigail, played by Dolly De Leon.

The film is nominated for best picture and it is available to rent on YouTube, Apple TV and Amazon.

Three nominations. Still in theaters.

Brendan Fraser receives a best actor nod for his portrayal of Charlie, the 600-pound central character of “The Whale.” Charlie is a father, an English teacher and has terminal health issues that give him a life expectancy of a week. In that week, he attempts to bond with his estranged daughter. The film is based on and adapted from the off-Broadway play by Samuel D. Hunter and also earned a best supporting actress nod for Hong Chau. 

The film is still in theaters and is not yet available for streaming.

Three nominations. Still in theaters.

From “La La Land” director Damien Chazelle comes a journey into 1920s Hollywood hedonism and a drug-fueled fever dream of the bygone cinematic era. The film stars Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt and newcomer Diego Calva in a three-hour story about filmmaking at a crucial time for American cinema.

Earning only three below-the-line nominations, the film is still in theaters and is not yet available for streaming.

Two nominations. Still only in limited theaters.

Director Sarah Polley weaves the story of pervasive sexual assault plaguing the women in a Mennonite community. “Women Talking” is an adaptation of a 2018 book by Miriam Toews. It stars Claire Foy, Rooney Mara and Frances McDormand.

The best picture nominee is still in limited theaters and is not yet available for streaming.

Best supporting actress nominee. Still in theaters.

Angela Bassett has been nominated for best supporting actress in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” a superhero movie made in the wake of the death of Chadwick Boseman. She becomes the first actor nominated for a Marvel role. Director Ryan Coogler's film allows the audience to grieve the character T'Challa and Boseman.

The film is still in theaters but is coming to Disney+ on Feb. 1.

Best supporting actor nominee. Apple TV+.

Brian Tyree Henry snags a best supporting actor nod in “Causeway,” an Apple TV+ drama starring Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence. The film homes in on the relationship between a military engineer (Lawrence) recovering from the effects of a severe brain injury and an auto repair shop mechanic (Henry) living with the guilt and the physical aftereffects of a car accident.

The film is available to stream on Apple TV+.

Best actress nominee. Netflix.

Ana de Armas receives her first nod for best actress for her portrayal of Marilyn Monroe in the adaption of Joyce Carol Oates' novel, “Blonde.” The film is not quite a biopic of the late movie star's life; it is more of a bruising narrative told from the perspective of director Andrew Dominik.

The film is available to stream on Netflix.

Best adapted screenplay nominee. Netflix.

The sequel to director Rian Johnson’s “Knives Out,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” features the return of Daniel Craig’s southern twang-heavy detective Benoit Blanc. The twisty whodunit does what the original did best: allow problematic and murderous rich people to measure their egos and decipher which one is a killer.

The film is available to stream on Netflix.

Best actor nominee. Digital rental.

Writer-director Charlotte Wells illustrates the bond between a father/daughter duo portrayed by first-time Oscar nominee Paul Mescal and Frankie Corio. “Aftersun” touches on the pivotal moments in an adolescent life when the world feels so big but childlike wonder starts to fade when the reality of life peeks through the cracks. “Aftersun” is a dreamy, heartwrenching debut from Wells.

The film is available for rent on Amazon and YouTube.

Best animated film nominee. Netflix.

The decades-old child’s tale “Pinocchio” gets retold through the lens of Guillermo Del Toro’s dark mind. This is not the Disney version of “Pinocchio” — in Del Toro’s still musical version, themes of fascism are explored. The cast includes Christoph Waltz, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton and Ewan McGregor and it is nominated for best animated film.

The film is available to stream on Netflix.

Best international feature nominee. Still in limited theaters.

“EO” is the story of a circus donkey who is taken from his owner and begins a long, spiritual journey through the modern Polish and Italian countrysides, encountering humans both kind and cruel. It is a love letter to animals, directed by Jerzy Skolimowski.

“EO” is still in limited theaters and is not yet available for streaming.

Best international feature nominee. Amazon Prime Video.

“Argentina, 1985” establishes the 1985 Trial of the Juntas, a historic moment for Argentina that helped launch the country’s democratic future after seven years of military dictatorship. Director Santiago Mitre shaped the classic political thriller into a story about preserving history and the years it takes to receive justice.

The film is available to stream on Amazon.

Best documentary feature nominee. Still only in limited theaters.

American photographer Nan Goldin’s life’s work is told throughout “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” and it’s not just about photography. Directed by Laura Poitras, this documentary dives into Goldin’s political activism and how the sticky web of the Sackler family’s philanthropic interests in the art world intersected with their pharmaceutical company Purdue Pharma, which has faced a barrage of lawsuits alleging that it helped spark an opioid addiction and overdose crisis. The film is nominated for best documentary feature.

It is still in limited theaters and is not yet available for streaming.

Best animated film nominee. Digital rental.

“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” is a feature-length, stop-motion animation film based on the YouTube shorts made by Jenny Slate, who voices Marcel in a high-pitched octave, and director Dean Fleischer Camp. The experience of being small, cute and unassuming is the heart of the film about a mollusk.

The film is available to rent on Amazon.

Best animated film nominee. Disney+.

“Turning Red” is the first Pixar movie directed solely by a woman. Helmed by Domee Shi, who also made the Oscar-winning short “Bao,” the animated film is a coming-of-age tale about a Chinese Canadian eighth-grader who turns into a big, fluffy red panda — a walking metaphor for growing young womanhood. The film is nominated for best animated film.

“Turning Red” is available to stream on Disney+.

Best original song. Netflix.

S.S. Rajamouli’s three-hour maximalist action epic “RRR” is one of India’s most expensive — and top-grossing — films of all time. It pairs two of Tollywood’s biggest stars, N.T. Rama Rao Jr. and Ram Charan, as revolutionaries fighting against the British colonialists in 1920.

The film, nominated for best song, topped Netflix’s streaming charts over the summer and is still available to watch there.