2023 NFL Draft preview: Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud for the top pick overall? | Hot off the Wire podcast
Lee Digital Content Center, The Associated Press
(Note: This episode may be updated with news prior to the start of the NFL Draft.)
It’s April, which means it’s time once again for the NFL Draft.
The 2023 edition will take place in Kansas City, Missouri. The first round begins at 8 p.m. Eastern on Thursday. The second and third rounds are on Friday starting at 7 p.m. The fourth through seventh rounds are on Saturday starting at noon. You can watch the draft on the NFL Network, ABC, ESPN and ESPN Deportes.
A few important notes about the draft:
The Miami Dolphins forfeited their 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game. The Houston Texans forfeited their 2023 fifth-round pick due to a salary cap reporting violation.
The Carolina Panthers will make the first selection with a pick they obtained from Chicago.
The Houston Texans will make the second selection followed by the Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks to round out the top 5. Seattle’s pick was obtained from Denver.
The Detroit Lions will go at No. 6 with a pick from the Los Angeles Rams, followed by Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles to round out the top 10. Chicago’s pick is from Carolina and Philadelphia has a selection from New Orleans.
Picking 11 through 15 are the Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and New York Jets. Houston’s pick came from Cleveland and the Packers and Jets swapped picks as part of the trade that sent quarterback Aaron Rodgers to New York.
The Washington Commanders will make the No. 16 pick followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks.
Picking 21 through 25 will be the Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants.
The Dallas Cowboys are at No. 26, followed by the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints. The Saints pick comes from San Francisco through Miami and Denver.
The final two picks are for last season’s top finishers with the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles picking 30th and and Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs closing out the first round.
For the rest of this episode we present Ralph Russo, a college sports writer from the Associated Press, and Rob Maadi, an AP NFL writer, who offer their thoughts on the top players at each position.
— Compiled and narrated by Terry Lipshetz from Associated Press reports
Episode transcript
Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically:
It’s April, which means it’s time once again for the NFL draft. I’m Terry Lipshetz bringing you a special draft preview edition of Hot off the Wire. Our daily news program available on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. The 2023 NFL draft will take place in Kansas City, Missouri. The first round begins at 8 p.m. Eastern on Thursday.
The second and third rounds are on Friday, starting at 7 p.m.. The fourth through seventh rounds are on Saturday starting at noon. You can watch the draft on the NFL Network, ABC, ESPN and ESPN Deportes. A few important notes about the draft. The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first round pick in 2020 for third round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.
The NFL announced on March 9th that the Houston Texans will forfeit their 2023 fifth round pick due to a salary cap reporting violation from the 2020 league year. We will have a link in the show notes to details on the draft order. The complete first round draft order is as follows. The Carolina Panthers will make the first selection overall with a pick they obtained from Chicago.
The Houston Texans will make the second selection, followed by the Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks to round out the top five. Seattle’s pick was obtained from Denver. The Detroit Lions will go at number six with a pick from the L.A. Rams, followed by Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles to round out the top ten.
Chicago’s pick is from Carolina, and Philadelphia has a selection from New Orleans, picking 11 through 15 or the Tennessee Titans. Houston Texans. Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and New York Jets. Houston’s pick came from Cleveland and the Packers and Jets swapped picks as part of the trade that sent quarterback Aaron Rodgers to New York. The Washington commanders will make the number 16 pick, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. Picking 21 through 25 will be the Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Giants. The Dallas Cowboys are at number 26, followed by the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints. The Saints pick comes from San Francisco through Miami and Denver. The final two picks are for last season’s top finishers with the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles picking 30th and the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs closing out the first round.
For the rest of this episode. We present Ralph Russo, a college sportswriter from the Associated Press, and Rob Maaddi, an AP NFL writer who offered their thoughts on the top players at each position.
I think it’s interesting you talk about the decision makers making this a hard decision. I would deflect to the prospects is also what makes this a hard decision. Neither of these guys is Trevor Lawrence. It is Andrew Luck, right? That’s such an obvious prospect that checks all the boxes. Consensus number one. And I think that’s the reason why we have much a bit of uncertainty here, not just because of decision makers, but who is being who is who the decision is being made about.
Right. You have young who’s a little undersized but an incredible playmaker with a strong enough arm. You know, I met Bryce Young for the first time before he even got to Alabama. He was he was going into his freshman year. And I’m not that big of a guy. And I remember standing next to him thinking like, is this going to work?
And he ends up winning a Heisman Trophy and is a spectacular player at the University of Alabama. I think both guys have an interesting piece of this evaluation and that they’re both surrounded by great players. Right. And I think you look at the way that evaluation takes place and you start wondering, well, how much of it is the receivers around him and how great is the circumstances that they are in that list, their talents?
I tend to go more towards Bryce because I’ve seen him play and I find his escape ability and things along those lines to be, you know, hard to recreate, right When things go poorly, I feel like Bryce Young can still make good things happen. But I think the main takeaway for me is neither of these guys is a slam dunk number one prospect.
You’re right, Ralph, And that’s what would make it easy if this was Trevor Lawrence, if this was Andrew Luck, we know who’s going to be pencil man. We’d ink them in and move on. But for two years in a row now, we don’t have a consensus. Number one, the number one safety in this draft is Brian Branch. He’s got everything you want in NFL safety in terms of versatility can play close to the line against the run and could also split out and be a pretty good coverage guy maybe in the slot or even outside the number two safety Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M.
He’s got size, he’s got athleticism, he’s got versatility. He’s a great fit for the Eagles, the Chiefs and the Ravens. The number three safety Jordan battle. Brian Branch, his teammate at Alabama more of a traditional safety in that is a thumper against the run and we’ll play a little bit more of a center field against the pass. The number one cornerback in this draft Devin Weatherspoon from Illinois.
He’s a ball hawk. He breaks up, passes. He’s an aggressive tackler, great fit for the Lions Texans and the commanders bracing bizarre from Oregon is the number two corner in this draft long player good ball skills got lost in the shuffle a little bit though as a very good player on what wasn’t a particularly good defense. Number three corner is Joey Porter, junior from Penn State.
He’s got the great genes, too. His dad was a Pro Bowl linebacker here. He’s physical matches up well against bigger wide receivers, maybe a little too aggressive at times. Great fit for the commanders. The Steelers, the number one interior lineman. It’s a slam dunk here. Jalen Carter George, he’s a league. He’s a top pick talent but only issues are off the field concerns.
He’s a great fit for the Seahawks and the Eagles number two at defensive tackle Calais you can see from Pitt will remind some people a little bit of Aaron Donald and undersized defensive tackle from Pitt who super quick ran one of the fastest 40 times ever for defensive tackle at the combine. Number three, Mazi Smith, Michigan physical a sled that needs to be a little bit more consistent great fit for the Saints the Bills and the Bears will Anderson is the number one edge rusher in this draft out of Alabama.
He was a dominant player for one of the best programs in the country over the last couple of years. Best way I can describe Bill Anderson is good is Aidan Hutchinson is right now with the Detroit Lions. Anderson was probably a better player in college at Alabama. Number two edge rusher Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech. He’s strong and long.
He’s a potential nightmare for opponents at Edge needs to improve on the run defense side. Great fit for the Raiders, the Falcons and the Eagles. Number three eight edge rusher is Myles Murphy from Clemson prototypical build to 70 tall player. I think he just needs to probably hone his pass rush skills a little bit but at the very least, he’ll be the type of player who develops into a three down defensive lineman, number one offensive lineman on the board, Peter Skoronski from Northwestern.
He excelled at left tackle in college. Strong run blocker. He’s got great genes, something he’s best suited maybe to move inside to guard. I see him being a left tackle, a great fit for the Bears, the Eagles, the Jets. Number two offensive lineman is Ohio State’s Parris Johnson. All ticks all the boxes athletically long, athletic, good feet quick player and a bonus want to be a sportswriter after he’s done playing the NFL number three offensive lineman Broderick Jones from Georgia very athletic He’s got size he’s got length to play left tackle in the NFL.
Great fit for the Bears, the Steelers in the New York Jets. Number one tight end on the board. We’ll go with Dalton Kincaid from Utah. I think a little Mark Andrews here. Maybe not the best inline blocker, but a guy who could become a really, really solid, deep threat down the seam, a little raw as a player late to football, but there’s a lot of upside that comes with that number two tight end Michael Meyer Notre Dame, a above average receiver and blocker guy who moves the chains when he catches the ball.
He’s not a great YAC guy yet is a great fit for the Packers, the Jaguars in Dallas. Number three tight end Darnell Washington is a is a jumbo tight end. He looks like a tackle at two seven close to 80 great athlete needs to be a little bit more refined as a receiver has done more blocking at Georgia than he did pass receiving but again that leads you to think there might be some upside as he becomes a more refined route runner, but an incredible athlete, number one wide receiver in the draft.
We have Jackson Smith and Jake Ba from Ohio State didn’t play much last year after a hamstring injury, but had a spectacular junior season where he was even more productive then NFL stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Elway. Number two wide receiver prospect Zay Flowers from Boston College. Quick feet he’s a crisp route runner, a playmaker. Average hands is somewhat of a liability in some scouts minds.
Great fit for the Chargers, the Packers, the Seahawks. Number three wide receiver Jordan Addison from USC was a Pitt transfer. He won the political award in 2021, playing with Kenny Pickett, then transferred to USC to play with Caleb Williams explosive play a little undersides, but gets great separation has very good hands. Number one quarterback prospect for me is C.J. Stroud from Ohio State.
Strong arm accurate he can extend plays checks off all the boxes for intangibles I spoke to him at the Super Bowl. Love the kid, love his confidence. Great fit for Carolina at number one or the Texans at number two. He’s not going any lower than that might have been the number two prospect that Bryce Young out of Alabama, the 2021 Heisman winner.
Unbelievable capability, has that great talent to match his eyes to his feet. Right. And move around while still looking downfield and making plays a little undersized. But I think his leadership, his character, his arm strength, he checks a lot of the boxes, even though he’s a little younger size and he’s our number two quarterback in the draft. Number three quarterback on my board, A.B. Richardson from Florida, Freak athlete, excellent arm strength.
He’s raw though needs time to develop great fit for the Colts, the Texans or Titans. I’m Terry Lipshetz thanking you for listening. Audio provided by the Associated Press. Music is by skill sell and provided through Pixabay. Be sure to subscribe to Hot off the Wire on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss an episode.
10 worst NFL draft busts in history
George Gojkovich // Getty Images
Each year, more than 250 college football players hope to hear their names called during the annual NFL draft. For blue-chip prospects, there are expectations to be great especially if they were top picks. A slew of those players, however, fail to meet those expectations, causing them to be considered draft busts.
To see how well players lived up to their potential and how keen drafters really were, Stacker ranked the 10 worst draft busts in NFL history using data from Pro-Football-Reference.com. Players were ranked by taking their career approximate value—a holistic metric that rates players on a variety of statistics—and subtracting it from the expected career AV for the position they were drafted at.
For instance, a player drafted #1 overall would have an expected career AV of 63.4. If a #1 draft pick only had a career AV of 10, they would be rated at -53.4 for the purposes of this ranking. Only players drafted after the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 were ranked. Players drafted in 2017 or later were also excluded as they have yet to play a meaningful number of seasons.
Beyond ranking individual players, this data set can be used to compare teams leaguewide. On a team level, the Pittsburgh Steelers have proven to be one of the best drafters in the NFL—the franchise's draft picks have earned a cumulative career AV of 1524 over what you'd expect since 1970. That's more than double the next-best team (players drafted by the Miami Dolphins have a cumulative career AV 695 above their draft pick expectation). On the other hand, the Steelers' rivals, the Cleveland Browns, rank the worst by far in the league with their draft picks earning a career AV of 1300 under expected.
This data can also be used to track college success versus draft position. Players drafted out of the University of Miami have earned a cumulative AV 651 over what's expected for their draft positions, beating out the likes of the Pitt Panthers (595 over expected) and the California Golden Bears (562 over expected).
The University of Oklahoma alumni do the worst—former Sooners have a cumulative AV 1036 under expected—while the Nebraska Cornhuskers (650 under expected) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (587 under expected) draftees also struggle to match their draft expectations.
Without further ado, here's the list of the 10 worst draft busts in NFL history.
Each year, more than 250 college football players hope to hear their names called during the annual NFL draft. For blue-chip prospects, there are expectations to be great especially if they were top picks. A slew of those players, however, fail to meet those expectations, causing them to be considered draft busts.
To see how well players lived up to their potential and how keen drafters really were, Stacker ranked the 10 worst draft busts in NFL history using data from Pro-Football-Reference.com. Players were ranked by taking their career approximate value—a holistic metric that rates players on a variety of statistics—and subtracting it from the expected career AV for the position they were drafted at.
For instance, a player drafted #1 overall would have an expected career AV of 63.4. If a #1 draft pick only had a career AV of 10, they would be rated at -53.4 for the purposes of this ranking. Only players drafted after the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 were ranked. Players drafted in 2017 or later were also excluded as they have yet to play a meaningful number of seasons.
Beyond ranking individual players, this data set can be used to compare teams leaguewide. On a team level, the Pittsburgh Steelers have proven to be one of the best drafters in the NFL—the franchise's draft picks have earned a cumulative career AV of 1524 over what you'd expect since 1970. That's more than double the next-best team (players drafted by the Miami Dolphins have a cumulative career AV 695 above their draft pick expectation). On the other hand, the Steelers' rivals, the Cleveland Browns, rank the worst by far in the league with their draft picks earning a career AV of 1300 under expected.
This data can also be used to track college success versus draft position. Players drafted out of the University of Miami have earned a cumulative AV 651 over what's expected for their draft positions, beating out the likes of the Pitt Panthers (595 over expected) and the California Golden Bears (562 over expected).
The University of Oklahoma alumni do the worst—former Sooners have a cumulative AV 1036 under expected—while the Nebraska Cornhuskers (650 under expected) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (587 under expected) draftees also struggle to match their draft expectations.
Without further ado, here's the list of the 10 worst draft busts in NFL history.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #3 pick's expectation: -46.0
The Heisman Trophy runner-up entered the NFL with high expectations after rushing for 11 touchdowns during the 1992 season—a Tennessee record for a quarterback. A year later, Shuler threw for 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, making him a top draft prospect.
Shuler's NFL career started on the wrong foot in 1994 after holding out of training camp due to contract negotiations with the Redskins. In his rookie year, Shuler threw for 12 interceptions and 10 touchdowns in eight starts, creating doubt for fans in Washington. Shuler would never find his footing in the NFL after another slow start in 1995 that saw the North Carolina native throw for three touchdowns and seven interceptions in five starts.
Shuler would retire from the NFL after the 1997 season with the New Orleans Saints. He would serve as a member of the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013. Shuler, who is now a real estate professional, was inducted into the Tennessee Sports Hall of Fame in 2020.
Doug Pensinger // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 1994
- Pick: #3 overall
- Draft team: Washington Redskins
- Position: Quarterback
- College: Tennessee
- Career approximate value: 6
- Approximate value subtracted from the #3 pick's expectation: -46.0
The Heisman Trophy runner-up entered the NFL with high expectations after rushing for 11 touchdowns during the 1992 season—a Tennessee record for a quarterback. A year later, Shuler threw for 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, making him a top draft prospect.
Shuler's NFL career started on the wrong foot in 1994 after holding out of training camp due to contract negotiations with the Redskins. In his rookie year, Shuler threw for 12 interceptions and 10 touchdowns in eight starts, creating doubt for fans in Washington. Shuler would never find his footing in the NFL after another slow start in 1995 that saw the North Carolina native throw for three touchdowns and seven interceptions in five starts.
Shuler would retire from the NFL after the 1997 season with the New Orleans Saints. He would serve as a member of the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013. Shuler, who is now a real estate professional, was inducted into the Tennessee Sports Hall of Fame in 2020.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -46.2
The Baylor product became a top NFL prospect as an offensive tackle after beginning his career in Waco. The 6-foot-4 Dallas native would make the transition to the offensive line where he would be named an All-American in 2008. At the beginning of his NFL career, Smith was hampered by a severe concussion that caused him to only see action in eight games during his rookie season.
Smith would later be traded to the New York Jets after a 2011 campaign that saw him miss another large portion of games due to more concussions. Smith's career would end in 2013 with the Jets after being released. Smith played in 45 games with 26 starts during his NFL career.
Icon Sports Wire // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 2009
- Pick: #2 overall
- Draft team: St. Louis Rams
- Position: Tackle
- College: Baylor
- Career approximate value: 10
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -46.2
The Baylor product became a top NFL prospect as an offensive tackle after beginning his career in Waco. The 6-foot-4 Dallas native would make the transition to the offensive line where he would be named an All-American in 2008. At the beginning of his NFL career, Smith was hampered by a severe concussion that caused him to only see action in eight games during his rookie season.
Smith would later be traded to the New York Jets after a 2011 campaign that saw him miss another large portion of games due to more concussions. Smith's career would end in 2013 with the Jets after being released. Smith played in 45 games with 26 starts during his NFL career.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -47.2
The first defensive player on this list, Niehaus got off to a strong start in his career by winning the 1976 NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. The 6-foot-4 defensive tackle from Notre Dame recorded 9.5 sacks and one fumble recovery in his first season in the NFL.
Niehaus' career would then take a turn as the Ohio native suffered multiple knee injuries throughout the rest of his four-year NFL career. In his second season with the Seahawks, Niehaus would only appear in eight games and would not record a sack. In his last two seasons in the NFL, which included a stint with the Minnesota Vikings, Niehaus would only play in 17 games.
George Gojkovich // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 1976
- Pick: #2 overall
- Draft team: Seattle Seahawks
- Position: Defensive tackle
- College: Notre Dame
- Career approximate value: 9
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -47.2
The first defensive player on this list, Niehaus got off to a strong start in his career by winning the 1976 NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. The 6-foot-4 defensive tackle from Notre Dame recorded 9.5 sacks and one fumble recovery in his first season in the NFL.
Niehaus' career would then take a turn as the Ohio native suffered multiple knee injuries throughout the rest of his four-year NFL career. In his second season with the Seahawks, Niehaus would only appear in eight games and would not record a sack. In his last two seasons in the NFL, which included a stint with the Minnesota Vikings, Niehaus would only play in 17 games.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #3 pick's expectation: -48.0
The Nebraska product began his NFL career shrouded in controversy after a legal battle with the sports agency that represented him—Total Economic Athletic Management of America. The lawsuit concerned Pickens' rookie contract negotiations in 1991 with different representation. Two years later, Pickens was charged with one count of rape. The charges were later dropped.
On the field, Pickens also didn't meet expectations. In his rookie season, the defensive back, who had thrived in college due to his athletic traits, saw action in only seven games. Pickens would only last one more season in Atlanta before brief stints with the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Oakland Raiders. Pickens played in 48 games during his years in the NFL.
George Rose // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 1991
- Pick: #3 overall
- Draft team: Atlanta Falcons
- Position: Defensive back
- College: Nebraska
- Career approximate value: 4
- Approximate value subtracted from the #3 pick's expectation: -48.0
The Nebraska product began his NFL career shrouded in controversy after a legal battle with the sports agency that represented him—Total Economic Athletic Management of America. The lawsuit concerned Pickens' rookie contract negotiations in 1991 with different representation. Two years later, Pickens was charged with one count of rape. The charges were later dropped.
On the field, Pickens also didn't meet expectations. In his rookie season, the defensive back, who had thrived in college due to his athletic traits, saw action in only seven games. Pickens would only last one more season in Atlanta before brief stints with the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Oakland Raiders. Pickens played in 48 games during his years in the NFL.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #3 pick's expectation: -50.0
The Bengals had high hopes for Akili Smith after the team turned down a blockbuster trade of draft picks from the New Orleans Saints that would have netted Cincinnati nine selections of their own.
Smith, who was also drafted in the 1993 MLB draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, played in seven games during his rookie year with four starts. During that rookie season, the dual-threat quarterback rushed for 114 yards and passed for two touchdowns but threw six interceptions.
The Oregon product would play in 22 games during his NFL career with 17 starts. In his four seasons in the NFL, Smith threw for five touchdowns against 13 interceptions. His lack of NFL success was attributed to poor film study and a lack of commitment during the offseasons.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #3 pick's expectation: -50.0
The Bengals had high hopes for Akili Smith after the team turned down a blockbuster trade of draft picks from the New Orleans Saints that would have netted Cincinnati nine selections of their own.
Smith, who was also drafted in the 1993 MLB draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, played in seven games during his rookie year with four starts. During that rookie season, the dual-threat quarterback rushed for 114 yards and passed for two touchdowns but threw six interceptions.
The Oregon product would play in 22 games during his NFL career with 17 starts. In his four seasons in the NFL, Smith threw for five touchdowns against 13 interceptions. His lack of NFL success was attributed to poor film study and a lack of commitment during the offseasons.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #1 pick's expectation: -50.4
Considered one of the best defensive ends in college football history, Emtman had an NFL career that was also marred by injuries. During his rookie year, the 1991 Outland Trophy winner blew out his knee nine games into the season. A year later, Emtman tore his ACL on his left knee and the ACL, MCL, and patella tendon on his right knee. In 1994, Emtman suffered a herniated disk in his neck in a game against the Seattle Seahawks—his hometown team.
The Washington native only played one full NFL season in 1995 with the Miami Dolphins. Emtman would retire at 27 years old following the 1997 season with the Washington Redskins.
Gary Mook // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 1992
- Pick: #1 overall
- Draft team: Indianapolis Colts
- Position: Defensive end
- College: Washington
- Career approximate value: 13
- Approximate value subtracted from the #1 pick's expectation: -50.4
Considered one of the best defensive ends in college football history, Emtman had an NFL career that was also marred by injuries. During his rookie year, the 1991 Outland Trophy winner blew out his knee nine games into the season. A year later, Emtman tore his ACL on his left knee and the ACL, MCL, and patella tendon on his right knee. In 1994, Emtman suffered a herniated disk in his neck in a game against the Seattle Seahawks—his hometown team.
The Washington native only played one full NFL season in 1995 with the Miami Dolphins. Emtman would retire at 27 years old following the 1997 season with the Washington Redskins.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -52.2
Rogers' short-lived NFL career was due to health and off-the-field issues. The Michigan State product played three seasons in the NFL—all with the Lions. Roger suffered two collarbone injuries in his first two seasons with the team, which led to a painkiller dependency. He was suspended by the Lions in 2005 for substance abuse. He was released by the team a year later.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -52.2
Rogers' short-lived NFL career was due to health and off-the-field issues. The Michigan State product played three seasons in the NFL—all with the Lions. Roger suffered two collarbone injuries in his first two seasons with the team, which led to a painkiller dependency. He was suspended by the Lions in 2005 for substance abuse. He was released by the team a year later.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #1 pick's expectation: -52.4
Carter's time in the NFL got off to an unfortunate start after the Penn State running back suffered a torn ACL during the Bengals' first preseason game. The injury ended Carter's rookie season before it even began. Carter would never return to his old form after the devasting injury.
Carter would later suffer a torn rotator cuff during the 1997 season. A year later, he would miss nearly the entire 1998 campaign after breaking his left wrist against the Tennessee Oilers. Carter amassed 1,144 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns during seven seasons in the NFL.
Doug Pensinger // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 1995
- Pick: #1 overall
- Draft team: Cincinnati Bengals
- Position: Running back
- College: Penn State
- Career approximate value: 11
- Approximate value subtracted from the #1 pick's expectation: -52.4
Carter's time in the NFL got off to an unfortunate start after the Penn State running back suffered a torn ACL during the Bengals' first preseason game. The injury ended Carter's rookie season before it even began. Carter would never return to his old form after the devasting injury.
Carter would later suffer a torn rotator cuff during the 1997 season. A year later, he would miss nearly the entire 1998 campaign after breaking his left wrist against the Tennessee Oilers. Carter amassed 1,144 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns during seven seasons in the NFL.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -55.2
Ryan Leaf's tumultuous career has been well-documented after the Chargers selected the Montana-born quarterback one pick after NFL Hall of Famer Peyton Manning went first overall to the Colts. Leaf's time in the NFL has been remembered for outbursts at media, drug abuse, and an overall lack of effort.
Leaf had a poor rookie season that saw him throw two touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 1999, Leaf would miss the entire year due to a shoulder injury. Leaf would display flashes of promise during the 2000 campaign, but the Chargers finished 1-15 that year and released him as a result. Leaf would later have brief stints with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks.
Leaf would find himself in legal trouble after his playing days, including arrests for burglary and drug possession. He is now a keynote speaker after spending time as an analyst at ESPN.
Al Pereira // Getty Images
- Year drafted: 1998
- Pick: #2 overall
- Draft team: San Diego Chargers
- Position: Quarterback
- College: Washington State
- Career approximate value: 1
- Approximate value subtracted from the #2 pick's expectation: -55.2
Ryan Leaf's tumultuous career has been well-documented after the Chargers selected the Montana-born quarterback one pick after NFL Hall of Famer Peyton Manning went first overall to the Colts. Leaf's time in the NFL has been remembered for outbursts at media, drug abuse, and an overall lack of effort.
Leaf had a poor rookie season that saw him throw two touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 1999, Leaf would miss the entire year due to a shoulder injury. Leaf would display flashes of promise during the 2000 campaign, but the Chargers finished 1-15 that year and released him as a result. Leaf would later have brief stints with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks.
Leaf would find himself in legal trouble after his playing days, including arrests for burglary and drug possession. He is now a keynote speaker after spending time as an analyst at ESPN.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #1 pick's expectation: -57.4
Russell was considered a generational talent due to his measurables. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound quarterback impressed scouts with his physical tools at Louisiana State University, but his work ethic off the field became a distraction, eventually leading to his demise in the NFL.
The following season, Russell got his first real opportunity as a starter with 15 appearances for the Raiders but turned in a mediocre performance on the field. Russell finished the 2008 season with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A year later, Russell would lose his starting job after poor performances highlighted by fumbling issues. Following the 2009 season, the Raiders released Russell—his last opportunity in the NFL. Two months after his release, Russell was arrested on a drug charge.
- Approximate value subtracted from the #1 pick's expectation: -57.4
Russell was considered a generational talent due to his measurables. The 6-foot-6, 265-pound quarterback impressed scouts with his physical tools at Louisiana State University, but his work ethic off the field became a distraction, eventually leading to his demise in the NFL.
The following season, Russell got his first real opportunity as a starter with 15 appearances for the Raiders but turned in a mediocre performance on the field. Russell finished the 2008 season with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A year later, Russell would lose his starting job after poor performances highlighted by fumbling issues. Following the 2009 season, the Raiders released Russell—his last opportunity in the NFL. Two months after his release, Russell was arrested on a drug charge.
George Gojkovich // Getty Images