August poised to not have a named Atlantic storm for the 1st time in 25 years

By Judson Jones, CNN meteorologist

It isn’t your imagination. The tropics in the Atlantic Ocean have been very quiet this year despite a forecast from NOAA and other experts forecasting an above-average season.

There hasn’t been a named storm since the beginning of July, and if one doesn’t form by the end of the day, it will be the first August in 25 years not to have a named storm.

“Since 1950, two Augusts have had no Atlantic named storm formations: 1961 and 1997,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.

And it’s not just August. Klotzbach also tweeted:

“For the first time since 1941, the Atlantic has had no named storm (e.g., tropical storm or #hurricane) activity from July 3rd-August 30th.”

But the trend may not continue.

“This remarkably quiet Atlantic tropical cyclone period is likely to end soon,” Klotzbach said Wednesday morning.

Hurricane season is about to ramp up

The National Hurricane Center is actively watching three areas for tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. Two have a high chance of forming, and one off the west coast of Africa has a medium chance of developing.

The computer forecast models show a possible hurricane spinning toward the U.S. by the Labor Day holiday weekend. But the models then show the storm doing a U-turn and moving back into the Atlantic, possibly coming close to Bermuda.

Conditions look fairly good to have three hurricanes in the next 10 days, Klotzbach told CNN, added that having five more hurricanes after Sept. 10 would not be difficult.

Still, the hurricane seasonal above-average predictions might fall short this year.

“Colorado State University’s final seasonal hurricane forecast was issued in early August, but the odds of these forecasts verifying correctly are going down by the day,” Klotzbach acknowledged.

“Now, the odds of getting 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 majors are really low,” Klotzbach said.

<p>In this Aug. 27, 2011, file photo, people stand at the end of a street in Cape May, N.J., looking at a stormy Atlantic Ocean as Hurricane Irene arrives.</p>

AP Photo/Mel Evans

In this Aug. 27, 2011, file photo, people stand at the end of a street in Cape May, N.J., looking at a stormy Atlantic Ocean as Hurricane Irene arrives.

Looking back historically, the other two years with no named storms in August had quite different outcomes.

“1961 ended up a hyperactive hurricane season with an extremely busy September-November, while 1997 was a below-average season,” Klotzbach tweeted.

There have been a few factors that likely led to a quiet July and August in the Atlantic basin, CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said. “Primarily above-normal wind shear and dry air.”

Wind shear is the change of wind speed and strength with height in the atmosphere. High levels of wind shear prevent tropical disturbances from developing into well-organized systems and can also tear apart systems that do begin to form.

“We are currently in a La Niña pattern which typically leads to reduced wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic,” he noted. “So the fact that we have, so far, seen above normal wind shear is surprising.”

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