SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi learned early on in his time working with first-year head coach Brandon Staley to be ready with a fourth-down call in nearly any situation.
Back in Week 3 with the Chargers facing fourth-and-9 in the final minute of a tie game against Kansas City, Staley opted to go for it instead of trying a long field goal.
“When he said, ‘We’re going for it,’ I was a little surprised there,” Lombardi said. “After that, no, I don’t think that I’ll be surprised anymore.”
Teams going on fourth down is much less of a surprise these days than ever, even if it’s in the first half in their own territory, in a tie game when a field goal will provide a late lead, or when protecting a lead at the end of the game.
Staley has been among the most aggressive, with that decision against the Chiefs leading to a go-ahead touchdown that left Patrick Mahomes little time to respond. Or last week when Staley went on fourth-and-1 from the Philadelphia 39 in the final three minutes of a tie game.
“If I feel like it’s an advantage situation, from a data standpoint, modeling standpoint, timing, rhythm of the game, if I feel like that’s what’s best for us, then we’re going,” Staley said. “What we’ve done a good job of is making sound decisions, not reckless decisions. If you study the actual data of the decision making that we’ve had, I don’t think anyone would say that we’re gambling.”
Staley ranks first in EdjSports’ rankings of coaches on fourth-down calls, edging usual leaders like Indianapolis’ Frank Reich and Baltimore’s John Harbaugh.
Bill Belichick, whose memorable decision to go on fourth-and-2 late in a 2009 game against Peyton Manning and the Colts sparked a debate about fourth-down decisions, ranks last on the list.
The analytics company has one of the best models for determining when NFL teams should go and when they should kick on fourth downs, using its win probability model that relies on historical play-by-play data adjusted for variables such as the strength and weaknesses of both teams, injuries and other factors.
Coaches across the league are more willing than ever to keep the offense on the field instead of kicking on fourth down, even in their own territory or in situations their predecessors never would have contemplated.
John Froschauer
FILE - Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson keeps the ball for a touchdown on a fourth-down play against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half of an NFL football game Oct. 20, 2019, in Seattle. Coaches across the league are more willing than ever to keep the offense on the field instead of kicking on fourth down. The shift began moving in the 2017 season when then-Eagles coach Doug Pederson's aggressive fourth-down strategy helped Philadelphia win the Super Bowl. John Harbaugh and the analytically-sound Ravens took it a step further in the 2019 when the skills of Jackson helped deliver 17 successful fourth-down tries and now teams are going for it more than ever. (AP Photo/John Froschauer, File)
The shift began in the 2017 season when then-Eagles coach Doug Pederson’s aggressive fourth-down strategy helped Philadelphia win the Super Bowl.
Harbaugh and the analytically sound Ravens took it a step further in 2019 when the skills of Lamar Jackson helped deliver 17 successful fourth-down tries. Now, teams are going for it more than ever.
Fourth-down tries jumped more than 10% from 2019 to 2020 and are up an additional 16% through nine weeks this season. Attempts are up more than 73% over 2017 when Pederson first got attention for his success in Philadelphia.
“I think there’s a bit of a herd mentality with coaches,” said EdjSports co-founder Frank Frigo. “There’s definitely coaches out there that have gotten this for a while and been paying attention. Once others start doing it, it kind of snowballs a little bit.”
Teams have gone on fourth down in their own territory in the first half 30 times this year, more than double last year’s total through nine weeks (13) and a six-fold increase over the five tries through nine weeks in 2016.
Frigo, who began consulting with NFL teams about 15 years ago, knew this day would eventually come.
“The math was just so clear that this behavior would yield more wins on average,” he said. “If you look at any sort of technology or information, sooner or later if it works and it produces the desired effect, eventually it’ll find its way in. We always wondered how long it was going to take. We thought this was going to happen 10 years ago. There’s definitely a trend going on right now where it’s started to shift and accelerate. But it still has a ways to go.”
While coaches are still far from peak decision making with the models calling for going in most short-yardage situations no matter the field position, the number of glaring errors has been severely reduced.
Ian O’Connor, a senior sports data analyst at EdjSports, said the error rate on their model has dropped by nearly 5 percentage points since 2019. Bad fourth-down decisions cost teams about two-thirds of a win in 2018 and its trending toward about 0.6 wins this season.
While the difference is small, it could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs in a league where the margin between teams is often miniscule.
There is still plenty of progress coaches could make, but there remains some hesitancy.
“I do listen to analytics a ton, and I think it makes a lot of sense, but when it comes down to fourth-and-1, it’s about how you feel in the moment,” said 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, who said he considers field position, what plays he has on his sheet, how well his line is blocking, the weather, and all sorts of variables before making a final call.
“I know a lot of people have upped it in the NFL, especially on their own side of the 50, which is somewhat surprising, but I think guys have had some success with it, which has helped them win games. And I think guys haven’t, which has helped them lose games, so there’s never a right or wrong answer until after the play.”
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Rick Scuteri
The NFL, the NFL Players Association and their medical directors and independent infectious disease experts put together the protocols. The discipline for violating them was negotiated, with the league and union reaching agreement on specific fines for players. The NFL determines fines for franchises in violation of the protocols.
Rick Scuteri
The NFL, the NFL Players Association and their medical directors and independent infectious disease experts put together the protocols. The discipline for violating them was negotiated, with the league and union reaching agreement on specific fines for players. The NFL determines fines for franchises in violation of the protocols.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Ed Zurga
They are broken down in several categories.
For any player who fails or refuses to fully cooperate with an investigation led by the NFL and/or NFLPA regarding compliance: one week’s salary up to $50,000. And for refusal to submit to required virus testing: $50,000.
For refusal to wear a tracking device when required: $14,650.
An unvaccinated player gathering in any number for any reason with other players and/or members of the club’s staff at a time when the team is “shut down” due to a COVID-19 outbreak is a $50,000 fine.
For any player who is not fully vaccinated, the $14,650 fine applies to:
— Gathering outside of the club facility or team travel in groups of more than three players or other individuals.
— Engaging in in-person meetings, practices and/or training activities outside of club facilities with other players and/or staff.
— Attending an indoor nightclub (unless the player is wearing personal protective equipment and there are no more than 10 people in the club). Or attending an indoor bar (other than to pick up food, or unless the player is wearing PPE and there are no more than 10 people in the bar).
— House gatherings of more than 15 people without the player and all guests wearing masks or PPE, or where social distancing for the more than fifteen people is impossible.
— Attending an indoor music concert/entertainment event. And attending a professional sporting event (other than applicable NFL games or events; or unless the player is seated in a separate section, such as a suite or owner’s box, is wearing PPE and there are no more than 10 people in that separate section).
— Attending an event that is prohibited by state and/or local regulation or other executive orders or laws implemented due to COVID-19.
— Refusal to wear a mask or PPE; and/or maintain physical distancing in club facilities or during travel.
Ed Zurga
They are broken down in several categories.
For any player who fails or refuses to fully cooperate with an investigation led by the NFL and/or NFLPA regarding compliance: one week’s salary up to $50,000. And for refusal to submit to required virus testing: $50,000.
For refusal to wear a tracking device when required: $14,650.
An unvaccinated player gathering in any number for any reason with other players and/or members of the club’s staff at a time when the team is “shut down” due to a COVID-19 outbreak is a $50,000 fine.
For any player who is not fully vaccinated, the $14,650 fine applies to:
— Gathering outside of the club facility or team travel in groups of more than three players or other individuals.
— Engaging in in-person meetings, practices and/or training activities outside of club facilities with other players and/or staff.
— Attending an indoor nightclub (unless the player is wearing personal protective equipment and there are no more than 10 people in the club). Or attending an indoor bar (other than to pick up food, or unless the player is wearing PPE and there are no more than 10 people in the bar).
— House gatherings of more than 15 people without the player and all guests wearing masks or PPE, or where social distancing for the more than fifteen people is impossible.
— Attending an indoor music concert/entertainment event. And attending a professional sporting event (other than applicable NFL games or events; or unless the player is seated in a separate section, such as a suite or owner’s box, is wearing PPE and there are no more than 10 people in that separate section).
— Attending an event that is prohibited by state and/or local regulation or other executive orders or laws implemented due to COVID-19.
— Refusal to wear a mask or PPE; and/or maintain physical distancing in club facilities or during travel.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Bruce Kluckhohn
The NFL was not specific on that, but Rodgers had been seen without a mask at the Packers' facility, particularly during news conferences.
Rodgers, who in August said he was “immunized” against COVID-19, said Tuesday: “I made some comments that people might have felt were misleading. To anybody who felt misled by those comments, I take full responsibility for those comments.”
Rodgers said Friday that he sought alternative treatments rather than the NFL-endorsed vaccinations because he is allergic to an ingredient in the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. He didn’t specify the ingredient.
Bruce Kluckhohn
The NFL was not specific on that, but Rodgers had been seen without a mask at the Packers' facility, particularly during news conferences.
Rodgers, who in August said he was “immunized” against COVID-19, said Tuesday: “I made some comments that people might have felt were misleading. To anybody who felt misled by those comments, I take full responsibility for those comments.”
Rodgers said Friday that he sought alternative treatments rather than the NFL-endorsed vaccinations because he is allergic to an ingredient in the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. He didn’t specify the ingredient.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Tony Dejak
The NFL may impose discipline on such players or ones who knowingly provide misleading or incomplete information during a contact tracing interview. The maximum fine amount is for one week’s game check up to $50,000 for a first offense. But there could be subsequent discipline for further offenses.
Tony Dejak
The NFL may impose discipline on such players or ones who knowingly provide misleading or incomplete information during a contact tracing interview. The maximum fine amount is for one week’s game check up to $50,000 for a first offense. But there could be subsequent discipline for further offenses.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Charlie Riedel
Yes — based upon the absence of just cause; whether the player actually was engaged in such conduct; whether the punishment imposed by the NFL was warranted for that conduct; and a variety of other allowable bases.
Rodgers appealed the decision to not accept his treatments as equal to a vaccination but lost the appeal. He has not yet appealed Tuesday's fine and has not indicated he will do so.
Charlie Riedel
Yes — based upon the absence of just cause; whether the player actually was engaged in such conduct; whether the punishment imposed by the NFL was warranted for that conduct; and a variety of other allowable bases.
Rodgers appealed the decision to not accept his treatments as equal to a vaccination but lost the appeal. He has not yet appealed Tuesday's fine and has not indicated he will do so.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Ross D. Franklin
Repeat violations would subject players to increased discipline, including for conduct detrimental to the game. A maximum fine of one week’s salary and/or suspension without pay for four weeks or less would be imposed.
Ross D. Franklin
Repeat violations would subject players to increased discipline, including for conduct detrimental to the game. A maximum fine of one week’s salary and/or suspension without pay for four weeks or less would be imposed.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Phelan M. Ebenhack
All 32 NFL teams are required to ensure a safe environment not only at their facilities but at stadiums and during travel. They also are required to monitor the actions of players and staff, which includes taking around-the-clock videos at their facilities.
Players also must inform the team if they are vaccinated, and those who are not must adhere to specific protocols for them. The NFL found that the Packers did not handle these situations properly.
Phelan M. Ebenhack
All 32 NFL teams are required to ensure a safe environment not only at their facilities but at stadiums and during travel. They also are required to monitor the actions of players and staff, which includes taking around-the-clock videos at their facilities.
Players also must inform the team if they are vaccinated, and those who are not must adhere to specific protocols for them. The NFL found that the Packers did not handle these situations properly.
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Dennis Young: ESPN’s Adam Schefter can’t stop embarrassing himself
Michael Conroy
Yes, but it is unlikely. After several teams were discovered to have violated protocols in 2020 — leading to COVID-19 outbreaks and, at times, schedule adjustments — only one, New Orleans, was stripped of a 2022 sixth-round pick. The Saints were sanctioned by the league for inconsistent cooperation. The Packers have not been cited for that.
Michael Conroy
Yes, but it is unlikely. After several teams were discovered to have violated protocols in 2020 — leading to COVID-19 outbreaks and, at times, schedule adjustments — only one, New Orleans, was stripped of a 2022 sixth-round pick. The Saints were sanctioned by the league for inconsistent cooperation. The Packers have not been cited for that.
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4th down aggressiveness increasing rapidly across NFL
Matt Rourke
Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley watches action during the first half of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Matt Rourke
Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley watches action during the first half of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
